Jakobi Meyers Receiving Prop vs Dallas Cowboys
The New England Patriots will host the Dallas Cowboys at Gillette Stadium this weekend. New England’s struggled a bit, recording a 2-3 record through 5 weeks. With that being said, they own a +4 point differential this season. It’s tough to fault any of the Patriots’ losses, although they only boast wins against the New York Jets and Houston Texans. Dallas’ looked outstanding thus far, posting a 4-1 record to go along with a +53 point differential thus far. Their only loss came by 2 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Cowboys own an impressive win against the Los Angeles Chargers in 2021.
The odds are surprisingly close compared to how these teams have played early this season. Dallas is currently a -3 point road favorite with the odds shifted toward New England thus far. The game total’s set at 50.5 points, suggesting the offenses will be on full display.
This article looks to find the best available bet in this game.
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Jakobi Meyers’ progressed well for the Patriots throughout his career. In 15 games as a rookie, he posted 26 receptions for 359 yards on 41 targets. He set career-highs over 14 games in his second season, recording 59 receptions for 729 yards on 81 targets. Meyers hasn’t scored a touchdown in his NFL career, though.
He’s on pace for the best season of his young career in 2021, though. Through 5 games, Meyers boasts 31 receptions for 302 yards on 46 targets. Although his yards per reception (9.7) and yards per target (6.6) are the lowest of his career, he’s averaging a career-high 60.4 yards per game this season.
Dallas’ struggled a bit in terms of air yards allowed in 2021. They’ve allowed 740, which ranks in the bottom half of the league thus far. They’re also only 50 yards outside of ranking in the bottom-10 of the league in that category.
Meyers leads New England in the percentage of his teams’ air yards (28.6%) this season. Overall, he’s seen 405 air yards with an 8.8 aDOT through 5 games. He should see plenty of air yards once again this week, as he’s recorded 12 and 14 targets in 2 of his last 3 games.
The Cowboys also feature the worst defense in the NFL in terms of yards after the catch. Through 5 games, they’ve given up a league-high 892 YAC. They also rank in the bottom-5 of the NFL in missed tackles (39). Ultimately, Dallas could be the worst defense in the league after the catch.
Meyers is an interesting option for New England in this matchup. He doesn’t boast elite YAC ability. He’s averaging only 3.4 YAC per reception this season, which isn’t one of the highest on the Patriots team. With that being said, this is a matchup where Meyers could find more success in this category, raising his ceiling overall. He should see plenty of opportunities for YAC with a near 70% catch rate, as well.
One of the keys to this bet is Dallas’ run defense. They’re allowing only 79.4 rushing yards per game this season. More importantly, teams are only averaging 18.8 rushing attempts per game against them, which ranks as the second-lowest in the NFL.
We’ve seen New England abandon the run and allow Mac Jones to throw the ball 40 or 50 times in a game. These were the types of games that Meyers recorded 10+ targets, as well.
With Dallas’ defense ranking last in the NFL in airYAC allowed this season, this is a great matchup for Meyers. He’s a focal point of the New England offense, and he could see double-digit targets once again.
It’s important to note that the Patriots could be playing from behind in this game, as well, giving them added incentive to throw the ball. Meyers’ production is generally based on his volume, and this could end up being his first 100+ yard game of the season.
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