Steve's NBA Prop Bets - 10/20/21
We’re back Karma Nation! A fresh NBA season is upon us which gives an opportunity to make a little cash on some NBA prop bets. For these prop bets we’re looking for players who could receive more shot opportunities than expected due to injuries (or for one of our props a suspension). We’re also looking to feast on mediocre or worse defenses to hit a few overs. We have 11 beautiful NBA games on tap Wednesday night. Let’s get into it.
Joel Embiid - Over 38.5 points plus rebounds at the New Orleans Pelicans
If you heard Joel Embiid at 76ers practice Tuesday, he’s quite fed up with the Ben Simmons saga saying “At this point I don’t care about that man. He does whatever he wants.” With no Simmons in New Orleans Wednesday, it’s more the Joel Embiid show than ever. Expect Embiid to come in highly motivated to show the world that the 76ers don’t need Simmons to achieve their goal of winning an NBA championship. In addition the Pelicans defense has been awful for years. The Pels allowed 114.9 points per game last year, 24th in the NBA. Those numbers only got worse last year when factoring in points in the paint. New Orleans allowed 54.4 points per game last year in the paint, second worst in the NBA. It’s hard to see how things are better this year after losing Lonzo Ball’s defense and swapping Steven Adams for offensive-minded big man Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas was a major part of the league’s worst paint defense a year ago. Expect Embiid to feast in the Big Easy Wednesday night.
Jonas Valanciunas - Over 25.5 points plus rebounds vs the Philadelphia 76ers
We’re certainly not picking Jonas Valanciunas for his defense but JV has a golden opportunity in the early part of the season to put up big numbers with the absence of Zion Williamson. There is no timetable for a Williamson return. A year ago in Memphis, Valanciunas averaged 17.1 points per game and 12.5 rebounds per game with more talent around him that needed the ball. With fewer options to shoot the ball than he had with the Grizzlies, expect Valanciunas to be a daily candidate for prop bets at least until Williamson returns. Take this with a grain of salt since he has a new team and it’s a new season but Valanciunas hit this over in eight of his last nine regular season games.
LaMelo Ball - Over 29.5 points plus rebounds plus assists vs the Indiana Pacers
Nothing to see here besides the ascent of the next great NBA point guard. LaMelo Ball surpassed all expectations last year and cemented himself as the face of the franchise in Charlotte. A step forward is expected in his sophomore season. The question with Ball has always been his shooting but he showed last season he can still fill up the box score on off shooting nights, which is why the points + rebounds + assists gives us some insurance here. We talked about how bad the Pelicans defense was last season, well the Indiana Pacers were even worse, allowing 115.7 points per game, 26th in the NBA. With Devonte’ Graham now a member of the Pelicans, there is very little guard depth behind Ball. Expect the youngest Ball brother to receive an uptick in minutes this season, giving him more of an opportunity to hit this over.