Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop vs Miami Dolphins
Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons will travel to Hard Rock Stadium for a matchup against the Miami Dolphins. This is a matchup between two struggling teams. Atlanta owns a 2-3 record with a -43 point differential in 2021. The Falcons only own wins over the New York Giants and New York Jets this season. Miami enters this game with a 1-5 record to go along with a -78 point differential. The Dolphins own a 1-point win over the New England Patriots, but they’re coming off of a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The odds in this game represent two struggling teams, as Atlanta’s a -2.5 point road favorite in this game. They opened as only -1 point favorites with the odds shifting their way throughout this week. The game total opened at 47.5 points and hasn’t moved thus far.
This article looks to find the best available bet in this game.
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Matt Ryan’s enjoyed outstanding longevity in his career for Atlanta. Through 13 seasons, he’s totaled 55,767 yards with 347 touchdowns and 158 interceptions. Ryan’s averaged 4,290 yards per season and 272 yards per game through 205 games.
He’s seen mixed results through 5 games in 2021. Overall, he’s posted 1,332 yards with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 204 pass attempts. One major concern with Ryan this season is he owns 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt with a career-low 9.4 yards per completion. With that being said, he’s averaging 266.4 passing yards per game this season.
The public perception of Matt Ryan is that he’s washed at this point of his career. He completed only 21 of 35 passes in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. He threw for only 164 yards without any touchdowns in that game. It was seen as a great matchup at the time, although Philadelphia’s only giving up 211.8 passing yards per game in 2021.
It’s important to note that the Eagles struggled against several high-end quarterbacks this season, although they’ve struggled more with touchdowns than yards.
The perception of Ryan from that game is off, though. That game’s more of an outlier than expected, even in a down season. In his other 4 games, Ryan’s averaging 292 passing yards per game. He’s totaled 300+ yards in 2 of those 4 games. Continuing his success, Ryan’s thrown for 2+ touchdowns in each of those games, as well.
He gets a great matchup against the Dolphins this weekend. They’re allowing the fourth-most passing yards (292.5) per game in 2021. They’re also giving up 8.7 adjusted yards per completion, which ranks third-last in the NFL
Furthermore, Miami’s struggled with both air yards and YAC in 2021. They’ve given up the third-most air yards (1,029) and seventh-most YAC (812) this season. Ultimately, they’ve allowed the third-most airYAC (1,841) in the league thus far, giving opposing quarterbacks tremendous upside in terms of potential yardage.
Ryan has plenty of weapons in his offense, although he hasn’t had them at his disposal for the entire season. Calvin Ridley, who’s taken over the WR1 role for the Falcons, missed the Week 5 game where Ryan threw for 342 yards. Russell Gage’s only played in 2 games thus far, and he’ll immediately take over the WR2 duties. Ridley and Gage will return to the lineup, giving Atlanta their top receivers this weekend.
Kyle Pitts hasn’t been hurt, but he’s a rookie tight end adjusting to the NFL. He’s coming off of his best game of the season, posting 9 receptions for 119 yards on 10 targets. Pitts recorded only 189 yards in his first 4 games of the season. Although there will continue to be growing pains, Pitts should continue to progress as an elite mismatch for the Falcons.
The final key weapons are in the backfield for Atlanta. Mike Davis is a versatile player who can create yards out of the backfield. Cordaralle Patterson is the other option, who boasts more upside for Ryan. He moves between receiver and running back, possessing elite YAC-ability from either position. He continues to boast an elite role in the passing game, and Patterson will be one of the keys for Ryan this weekend.
Ryan’s passing yard total isn’t absurdly low this week, but I’m still looking at the over. He’s hit this number in 3 of his last 4 games. There’s still the perception that he can no longer produce because of the Eagles game, but we’re well past that at this point.
Ryan gets an elite matchup against Miami, who’s struggled in essentially every metric for a passing defense. Ryan comes with 300+ yard potential, and I’m taking the over on his passing prop.
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