Brad's Best Bets - Can Frankfurt Keep a Clean Sheet?
One of my favorite leagues to bet is the German Bundesliga. For years the Bundesliga has been dominated by Bayern Munich. This year, Bayern look stronger than ever. The reason I love backing games in the Bundesliga is the insane output of goals. Leagues like the Premier League are fun to bet because of the brand name clubs you are backing. Leagues like Bundesliga are fun because it’s always more fun to root for goals. For comparison’s sake, the average goals per game in the EPL is 2.67 and the average goals per game in the Bundesliga is 2.89. The action I am looking at is the total in Bochum vs Frankfurt.
Bochum have had an undesirable start in their return season in the Bundesliga. As it stands now, they are just one point outside of the relegation zone. Bochum have a myriad of offensive and defensive issues. They have only scored five goals on the season while allowing 16 for a goal differential of -11. The are 14th on the table in expected goals and 17th in expected goals allowed. Thomas Reis is lucky his team has climbed out of the relegation zone for now.
Even with Bochum’s inability to score goals, their games are averaging 2.63 goals per game. They have kept clean sheets against Greuther Fürther, Stuttgart and Mainz. Even with clean sheets in 38% of their games over 2.5 has hit in 50% of their games.
Frankfurt are a bit unfortunate to be as close to the relegation zone as they are. With only losing two games on the season, you would think they would be positioned middle of the table at worse. However, they have only won one game this season and have failed to keep a clean sheet. The loss of star Andre Silva has most certainly impacted the club from a goal output standpoint. New manager Oliver Glasner must use their recent Europa win as a steppingstone up the table.
While there is some value in backing Frankfurt moneyline at +130, I am more interested in backing the goals here. It’s a bit juicy but I am interested in both teams to score (-145). Frankfurt have not kept a clean sheet all season, I don’t expect them to start this weekend. Take both teams to score (-145) for 1.5 unit.