NFL Player Prop - Can Matt Ryan Turn Things Around?

Matt Ryan Over 23.5 Completions -114 Fanduel 

 

I honestly did not expect Matt Ryan to be my favorite play of the week but here we are. For some context, this Falcons offense hasn't really impressed anyone this season. Maybe the expectations coming into the season were too high with the fantasy community falling in love with both Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, but here we are in Week 7. While the Lack of production from Ryan obviously isn't optimal he still has actually been cashing this prop regularly. After getting demolished by the Eagles in Week 1, only completing 21 passes for 164 he's turned it around with - 

 

35/46 for 300  vs TB
27/36 for 243 vs NYG
25/42 for 283 vs WFT
33/45 for 342 vs NYG 

 

As you can see, Ryan has now completed at least 25 props in 4 straight games against some fairly unimpressive teams. Speaking off unimpressive teams, what have the Dolphins been doing? Not Much! This Dolphins team has been absolutely demolished on the defensive end of the ball, something that was supposed to be a strength, resulting in an embarrassing loss in London against the Jaguars last week. The Dolphins have allowed 5 of 6 opposing quarterbacks to hit this number this season with the only loss being Josh Allen who didn't need to throw the ball much considering the 35-0 score. Dolphins have been bleeding completions with 

 

Mac Jones 29 (in his rookie Debut)
Josh Allen 17 (35-0)
Derek Carr 25 
Carson Wentz 24 
Tom Brady 40
Trevor Lawrence 25 

 

Wait, Monotone! What about Byron Jones and Xavien Howard returning this week? Well, I'm glad you asked. Both of those players started the first 5 games so this number still hit in four of five games with both star corners starting. Even if both corners are at 100%, which I doubt, they still prioritize defending the chunk plays which allows for more short completions to build up. Arthur Smith is coming out of a bye week and it's time for this offense to turn things around.