World Series Game 1 Betting Predictions
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World Series Game 1 Betting Predictions

Marty
10-26-2021

Congratulations everyone we finally made it to the World Series!

 

Tonight, looks like we get a pitching duel between RHP, Charlie Morton, and LHP, Framber Valdez.

 

Both these teams’ hot bats solidified spots in the World Series. This postseason Atlanta holds .725 OPS, .319 OBP, with 12 HR, and 83 hits. On the other side Houston is .797 OPS, .353 OBP, 13 HR, and 97 hits. The hot bat for Atlanta is Eddie Rosario with an impressive 1.313 OPS this postseason. For Houston it is Yordan Alvarez with a 1.329 OPS but Kyle Tucker is not far behind with a .935 OPS and 4 homeruns.

 

Charlie Morton has played in three games this postseason and has allowed a total of 10 hits, 6 earned runs, 19k’s, and 3.77 ERA. I still have situational concerns with him. With no runners on he holds a respectable .489 OPS, but when runners are in scoring position it shoots up to .809. Recent thirty-day trends show increase bb%, increase hard hit%, and decrease in contact %.

 

Framber Valdez has played in three games this postseason and has allowed a total of 16 hits, 7 earned runs, 13k’s, and a 4.20 ERA. From his situational splits his OPS goes from .655 with no one on to .580 with runners in scoring position. Recent thirty-day trends show a slight increase in k%, a slight decrease in bb%, an increase in ground ball%, and great increase in hard hit %.

 

When it comes to bullpens Atlanta appears to have the edge in last thirty days. Holding a top five 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. However, their xfip is showing 4.57 indicating their bullpen could be having some luck. With a SIERA of 4.36 I do not believe Atlanta’s current bullpen numbers will sustain.

 

Houston’s bullpen in the last thirty-days has looked rough. With a 4.24 ERA and a 11.8 bb%. However, there xfip shows slightly better at 4.10 and to confirm that we have a 4.11 SIERA.

 

I think Atlanta will feel the nerves in game 1. This season Atlanta was 31-37 against teams >.500 and Houston was 45-32 against teams >.500. I think it is also imperative I mention both teams have yet to see one another’s starter.

 

I’m going to stick with the team with more World Series experience and take Houston moneyline. I do not like the (-140) juice so it might be a better option to go to Houston run line (+145).


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