Braves vs Astros Game 3 – Betting Predictions

What better way to spend our Friday evening than with Game 3 of the World Series!? Houston was determined to take Game 2 and they came through putting up seven runs on nine hits. As for our bet we were spot on, identifying the shaky start for both starters and capitalizing on the over 4.5 F5.

 

 

Pitching Matchup

Tonight, we will see Atlanta’s RHP, Ian Anderson, and Houston’s RHP, Luis Garcia.

 

Anderson has thrown in three games this postseason. In those three games he allowed nine hits, three earned runs, 12 strikeouts, and a 2.25 ERA. Anderson has three main pitches, fastball allowing .288 wOBA, change up allowing .325 wOBA, and a curveball allowing .366 wOBA. Houston was top ten against all three pitches this season. Recent thirty-day trends show Anderson greatly increasing flyball %, decreasing hard hit %, and a slight decrease in k%.

 

Garcia has started in three games this postseason and the results where concerning. Garcia allowed eight hits, ten earned runs, two homeruns, seven walks, 12 strikeouts, and a 9.64 ERA. Throughout the season Garcia held a 4.24 ERA on the road. He appears to start out strong but struggles as the game goes on. Garcia lefty/righty splits show he gets hit hard by left-handed hitters. Atlanta’s projected lineup has four lefties. Recent thirty-day trends show an increase in ground ball %, great increase in hard hit %, increase in ahead of count %, and an increase in bb%. This season Atlanta’s offense was top ten in bb%.

 

Regarding the bullpens (or arm-barn if you may) the last seven days show Houston with a 3.63 ERA, 4.29 xfip, and 78.4% left on base % (LOB). Atlanta holds a 2.59 ERA, 4.12 xfip, and an 82.6% LOB.  

 

Prediction

The forecast is showing rain, but I do not think it will last long or impact hitting too much. In Game 1 & 2 both teams combined for 36 hits. This series Houston is averaging 8.5 hits/game and 4.5 runs/game. Atlanta is averaging 9.5 hits/game and 4 runs/game. Golden rule tells us that game total should be 9. It currently is set at 8.5. I’m seeing a struggle for both starting pitchers.

Bet:  over 8.5 (-110). If this game goes over 8.5 than one of, if not, both team totals should go over as well. I can see the triple threat tonight! Also, I like Anderson over Garcia so Atlanta moneyline F5 is in play

Homerun prediction: Atlanta- Freddie Freeman, Houston- Alex Bregman