Kevin Durant Player Prop Prediction vs Orlando Magic
The Brooklyn Nets will travel to the Amway Center for a matchup against the Orlando Magic tonight. Brooklyn’s struggled a bit early this season, posting a 7-4 record through 11 games. They performed as well as Vegas expects, recording a 5-6 against the spread (ATS) record thus far. Orlando hasn’t been better, though, as they own a 3-8 record over 11 games in 2021 They also own a 4-7 ATS record this season.
Our Trends page shows the Nets as -9.5 road favorites with the line moving in their direction early in the day. The game total’s increased from 209.5 points to 211, as well. Brooklyn boasts an implied team total of 109.25 while Orlando owns a 100.75 point implied team total.
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Kevin Durant’s been enjoying an outstanding season through 11 games for the Brooklyn Nets. He’s averaging 29.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 34.6 minutes per game. Durant’s also been extremely efficient, shooting 56.7% from the floor, 38.2% from beyond the arc, and 82.6% from the line.
Durant’s been scoring well in recent games, as well. He’s posted 29+ points in each of his last 4 games, averaging 32.5 points per game over that span. Oddly enough, Durant saw a streak of 4 games this season where he saw somewhat of limited shot attempts, averaging only 23.8 points per game over that span. It looks as if he’s taking on a larger offensive role, averaging 22.5 shot attempts per game over his last 4 games, and that should continue tonight, as well.
The Orlando Magic feature one of the worst defenses in the NBA to opposing forwards. According to FantasyPros, they’re allowing 24.13 and 23.47 points per game to opposing small and power forwards. Each of these ranks in the bottom-six of the NBA in 2021.
Keldon Johnson recently scored 20 points in 33 minutes against Orlando. He was the only forward to play big minutes in this game for the San Antonio Spurs, although Thad Young and Doug McDermott each scored double-digit points in somewhat of limited minutes, as well.
The Magic have yet to face anyone with the pure scoring ability of Durant [although no one in the NBA may match up to him]. The closest may be Julius Randle, who posted 30 and 21 points against Orlando. It’s important to note that the 21 point performance was a blowout, although Randle saw 30 minutes.
Jimmy Butler is another star that found success against the Magic, scoring 36 points in 33 minutes against them. He contributed 33.7% of the Miami Heat’s points in that game.
Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey combined to 35 points against them, as well. In another game, Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby combined for 37 points.
The fact that Orlando features one of the worst defenses in the NBA against forwards yet hasn’t consistently faced high-end forwards suggests they won’t be able to slow down Durant tonight. There is one aspect of his game that should help him find the over at this total - the mid-range.
Durant is arguably the best mid-range shooter in the NBA. He ranks fifth in the NBA in shot attempts in the paint (non-restricted area) at 5.7 per game. He also ranks fourth in the league in mid-range shot attempts per game (6.2).
Durant is also one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA at each of these spots. He’s shooting 55.6% in the paint and 61.8% in the mid-range. Although others have found success in each of these zones, Durant’s found plenty of success with extended volume.
The Magic don’t allow a ton of field goal attempts in the paint (non-restricted area) this season. With that being said, they rank in the bottom-10 of the league in field goal percentage allowed (44.7%) in that zone.
Most importantly, Orlando allows the third-most mid-range shot attempts per game in the NBA this season. Once again, they rank in the bottom-10 of the league in field goal percentage allowed (43.5%) in this range.
It’s important to note that Durant has the capability to score from anywhere on the floor. He’ll take plenty of three-point shot attempts in this game, although that isn’t an aspect Orlando struggles with. Instead, I expect Durant to get to his favorite spots on the floor as Orlando continues to work to protect the rim. The mid-range should be wide open for arguably the best mid-range shooter in the league tonight.
This is an elite matchup for Durant, as I mentioned above. He’s going to thrive in the mid-range, as Orlando looks to protect the basket. The only real concern here is a blowout. With that being said, Durant’s only seen limited minutes in 1 of his last 10 games, playing 35+ minutes in each of the other 9. If he continues his role in the offense with 35+ minutes, he should have no problems scoring 30+ points tonight.
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