CeeDee Lamb Prop Prediction vs Kansas City Chiefs
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CeeDee Lamb Prop Prediction vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Bales
11-18-2021

The Dallas Cowboys will travel to Arrowhead Stadium for a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. Dallas’ looked outstanding throughout the season, recording a 7-2 record thus far. They also boast a +89 point differential through 9 games. Outside of a surprising loss to the Denver Broncos, the Cowboys’ only loss came by 2 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs. Kansas City’s struggled a bit more than anyone would’ve predicted this season, posting a 6-4 record with a +21 point differential. The Chiefs don’t have any bad losses this season, although they have close wins over the New York Giants and an Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers in 2 of their last 3 games. 

 

The odds aren’t surprising with Kansas City continuing to be listed as an elite team, especially at home. They’re currently -2.5 point favorites against Dallas this weekend. The game total opened at 56.5 points and hasn’t moved thus far in the week. 

 

This article looks to find the best available bet in this game. 

 

Get access to our proprietary sports betting prediction models, such as our Prop Predictor by signing up here

 

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

CeeDee Lamb’s coming off of an outstanding rookie season. He recorded 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 touchdowns on 111 targets. He posted an impressive 66.7% catch rate with 12.6 yards per reception. 

 

Lamb’s enjoyed a quietly successful sophomore season through 9 games. He owns 47 receptions for 726 yards and 6 touchdowns on 73 targets. Lamb’s catch rate dipped slightly to 64.4% while his yards per reception jumped to 15.4. He’s posted 80+ yards in 6 of his 9 games, including a trio of games with 100+ yards. 

 

Air Yards

Lamb gets a great matchup against Kansas City in a game that projects as a shootout. They’re allowing 258.6 passing yards per game, ranking in the bottom-10 of the NFL. The Chiefs are also allowing 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They’ve given up 18 passing touchdowns with a 5.4% passing touchdown rate in 2021. 

 

Kansas City’s struggled with air yards throughout the season. Through 10 games, they’ve given up 1,309 air yards, ranking between the Denver Broncos (1,314) and New Orleans Saints (1,298). The Chiefs are roughly 300 air yards off of the Washington Football Team for the lead in the NFL. On the other side, the Buffalo Bills are roughly 500 yards below them for the least amount allowed thus far. 

 

The Cowboys utilize several targets in their receiving attacking, although Lamb leads the way. He’s seen a team-high 32.1% of Dallas’ air yards this season, which sits only slightly higher than Amari Cooper. Overall, Lamb’s seen 883 air yards with a 12.1 aDOT this season. 

 

Air yards predict opportunity, suggesting Lamb is the top option in the Cowboys’ offense. He’s more of a 1A to Cooper’s 1B at this point. Still, he’ll continue to see plenty of opportunity against a team that’s struggled with their pass defense for the majority of the 2021 season. 

 

Lamb’s ability with the ball in his hands is what separates him from Cooper for this bet, though. 

 

Yards After the Catch

Lamb’s been one of the better receivers after the catch in the NFL. He’s recorded 291 yards after the catch thus far, averaging 6.2 yards after the catch per reception this season. Overall, Lamb’s averaging around 3 more yards after the catch per reception than expected. 

 

For comparison, Cooper is averaging 3.7 yards after the catch per reception in 2021. This is roughly around the expectation on his catches. 

 

Kansas City’s struggled with yards after the catch this season. They’ve allowed the second-most in the NFL at 1,369. This sits only 34 below the Baltimore Ravens, who lead the league in the category. 

 

Lamb’s ability to create separation in his routes and after the catch gives him elite potential in this type of matchup. 

 

Prediction

The Cowboys boast a crowded offense with several ways to beat teams. They’re small underdogs in this game, though, and they get a great matchup against a bad Kansas City pass defense. Overall, the Chiefs have allowed 2,678 airYAC thus far. 

 

Lamb’s beat this number in 6/9 games this season, and he’s crossed the 100-yard mark in 3 different games. He returned to the slot last weekend, and that should be the case once again. Lamb comes with tremendous potential in a possible shootout, and he’s an elite option this weekend. 


Bet 1.15 units on CeeDee Lamb over 72.5 receiving yards (-115) to win 1 unit on DraftKings Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus


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