NBA Player Prop Prediction - Malcolm Brogdon (11/19/21)
What is up Karma Nation! With the NBA in full swing, I will now be introducing my prop predictions article for the NBA and the NFL. Last week we were screwed with Will Barton over 3.5 assists but we are here again this week to see what edges we can find tonight.
My first step in the research process is taking a look at how Vegas is projecting these games. Where the high-scoring games are and where the low-scoring games are. You must be aware of one thing for NBA props if you are betting an over in a game that could blow out. Games I normally avoid are ones that have a double-digit spread. Usually, those are the ones with a higher chance of a blowout. Honestly, any game can blow out. All it takes is a hot-shooting third quarter from one team and a cold-shooting third quarter for another team for these games to get out of hand. That is the issue with living and dying by the 3 which teams are more likely to do nowadays. Even the best scorers can miss wide-open shots, in some games, your shot just isn’t falling and defense doesn’t matter.
Highest total: Raptors vs Kings 221.5
Lowest Total: Warriors vs Pistons 201.5
Highest Spread: Bucks (-12.5) vs Thunder
This is a line I have been taking advantage of over at Prizepicks over the last couple of days. Although, it has been lower at 4.5 and today it is only at 5 so you find better odds there compared to a sportsbook. If you are unfamiliar with Prizepicks it is an alternative to sports betting that is legal in non sports betting states. So, if you are forced to play at an offshore book, Prizepicks might be legal in your state. Use promo code KARMA and they will match your deposit up to $100.
Now back to the prop.
Malcolm Brogdon has been crashing the boards at a high rate this season. Average 7.4 rebounds over his last 10 games, going over 5.5 rebounds in 6 of his last 10 games. While one of these unders came in the Toronto game where he only played 20 minutes because he got hurt in the third quarter. He already had 5 rebounds so we can technically count which would have led to a 70% over rate over the last 10 games.
According to our top props page, which is a premium tool at betkarma, he is projected for 7.15 rebounds leading to an A- rating.
Brogdon is one of the top rebounding guards in the league. His rebounds per game correlate with his high rebounding %. Among the starting guards that have played at least 10 games and play more than 20 minutes a game, he ranks 5th in rebounding % at 10.6%. In games where he had at least a 10% rebounding %, he went over this total in all but the game he was injured and on pace for 7-8 rebounds.
He is going up against the Hornets who rank 4th in pace and 28th in rebounding %. Meaning there will be plenty of rebounding opportunities for him tonight. On top of that, Hornets rank second in field goal attempts per game and are in the bottom half of the league in field goal attempts. Hornets are currently allowing the second most rebounding in the league and 6.6 rebounds to PGs a game.
As always, all prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state.
I’m sure a majority of my following is familiar with the prop sites Prizepicks, MonkeyKnifeFight, and Underdog Fantasy. If you are not familiar, click on the links and use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus. If you are a new sign-up for the site, send me a DM in discord and I can get you access to all our premium plays for FREE!
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