D.J. Moore Prop Prediction vs Miami Dolphins
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D.J. Moore Prop Prediction vs Miami Dolphins

Justin Bales
11-27-2021

The Carolina Panthers will travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face off against the Miami Dolphins in Week 12. Carolina’s seen mixed results throughout the 2021 season, posting a 5-6 record through 11 games. They’ve recorded a +6 point differential this season. The Panthers have been extremely inconsistent, winning games against the New Orleans Saints and an injured Arizona Cardinals while losing a game against the New York Giants. Miami’s also seen mixed results, recording a 4-7 record with a -68 point differential. The Dolphins have dealt with several injuries throughout the season, and they’re currently on a 3-game win streak. 

The odds are slightly surprising in this game. Carolina opened as a small -1 point road favorites against Miami. The line’s shifted to -2 throughout the week. The game total opened at 42.5 points, dropping to 41.5 thus far. 

This article looks to find the best available bet in this game. 

Get access to our proprietary sports betting prediction models, such as our Prop Predictor by signing up here

 

Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins

D.J. Moore’s found plenty of success throughout his young NFL career. He posted 66 receptions for 1,193 yards and 4 touchdowns on 118 targets in 2020. He saw a career-low 55.9% catch rate with a career-high 18.1 yards per reception. 

As has been the case throughout his career, Moore’s dealt with inconsistent quarterback play once again this season. Through 11 games, he owns 62 receptions for 751 yards and 4 touchdowns. His catch rate increased to 60.8% while his yards per reception dipped to 12.1. He’s posted 60+ yards in 6 of his 11 games. 

 

Air Yards

Moore gets an elite matchup against Miami this weekend. They’re allowing 274.2 yards per game and 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt in 2021. The Dolphins have also allowed 20 passing touchdowns with a 4.5% passing touchdown rate this season. 

Miami’s been the worst defense in the NFL in terms of air yards this season. They’ve allowed a league-high 1,745 air yards, sitting only 12 yards above the Washington Football Team. The Dolphins have allowed 100 or more air yards than 28 other NFL teams. They’ve also allowed nearly twice as many air yards as the Buffalo Bills in 2021. 

Moore’s been the top option for Carolina throughout the season. He’s seen 39.8% of their air yards throughout the season. Moore’s also seen 1,061 air yards with a 10.4 aDOT thus far in 2021. 

Moore’s been a target hog for the Panthers, as he’s seen the seventh-highest percentage of his teams' air yards in the NFL. He’ll continue to see tremendous opportunity for Carolina as the leader of their receiving group. 

Moore also boasts plenty of potential for yards with the ball in his hands. 

 

Yards After the Catch

Moore isn’t necessarily elite in terms of yards after the catch, but he boasts plenty of upside. Through 11 games, he’s posted 285 yards after the catch. Overall, he’s averaging 4.6 yards after the catch per reception, which leads Carolina. 

Miami’s allowing the fifth-most yards after the catch (1,450) this season. They’re sitting between the Seattle Seahawks (1,481) and Dallas Cowboys (1,426). Overall, they’re less than 100 yards away from the Baltimore Ravens for the league lead. 

Moore’s ability to create yards on his own adds to his value on a weekly basis. 

 

Prediction

The Panthers have a few focal points of the offense, and Moore is one of them. With the spread being less than a field goal, each team should be throwing throughout. Ultimately, Miami’s allowed a league-high 3,195 airYAC in 2021. 

Moore started the season out on fire, recording 54+ yards in 7 of his first 8 games. Over that span, he averaged 80.6 yards per game. He’s failed to top that number in each of his last 3 games, though. With that being said, he posted 50 yards with Cam Newton returning last weekend, and Moore comes with elite potential in this matchup this week. 


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