De'Aaron Fox vs Atlanta Hawks: NBA Prop Prediction (1/5/22)
We continue to have an elite NBA season in terms of player props. I’ve profited on seven consecutive nights with more than one bet since Christmas. Since returning on December 28th, I’ve profit 10.34 units with consistent closing line value on my bets. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet involving De’Aaron Fox vs the Atlanta Hawks.
Fox and the Sacramento Kings will host the Atlanta Hawks at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California tonight. These teams have both struggled throughout the season. Atlanta ranks 12th in the East, recording a 16-20 record, including a 3-7 record over their last 10 games. Sacramento sits 10th in the West with a 16-23 record. They’re 4-6 over their last 10 games. The Hawks are currently -1.5 point favorites, and the game total is set at 231 points tonight.
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Fox’s performed well for Sacramento throughout the season. He’s averaging 20.6 points in 34 minutes per game through 35 games. He’s shooting 44.9% from the field, 25.2% from deep, and 75.6% from the line in 2021.
Fox recently returned to the Kings lineup on December 26 after missing over 10 days. He struggled early on, scoring 16 or fewer points in each of his first four games back. With that being said, he’s been heating up, scoring 24 and 30 points against the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers in his last two games.
Sacramento’s guard gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks tonight. According to Fantasy Pros, the Hawks are giving up 23.7 points per game to opposing point guards this season. They’re also giving up 23.7 points to shooting guards, which is the third-highest mark in the NBA.
The Hawks have been decimated by guards in recent games. Anfernee Simmons and Norman Powell scored 43 and 26, respectively, in their last game. Some other recent games they’ve had include Coby White (17, 13), Zach LaVine (25, 30), Tyrese Maxey (17), and Gary Harris (17). Atlanta’s struggled against other guards over that span as well.
Fox splits time between point guard and shooting guard as his minutes are staggered with Tyrese Haliburton. Generally, Haliburton runs the offense with Fox taking over when he’s off the floor. Luckily, Atlanta struggles against both guard positions, although I actually prefer Fox playing shooting guard in this particular matchup.
Fox quietly leads the Kings currently healthy players in field goal attempts in the restricted area, in the paint (non-RA), and mid-range. He’s averaging 9.8 of his 16.9 field goal attempts per game in the paint this season.
The Hawks have consistently allowed opponents to get to the basket this season, giving up 27.4 field goal attempts in the restricted area. They also rank as a below-average defense, allowing a 65.3% field goal percentage in that area. Although they don’t give up many shots in the paint (non-RA), they rank in the bottom seven of the league in FG% in that area (43.5%). The Hawks also rank in the bottom seven of the NBA in FG% in the mid-range and above the break. Essentially, Fox should be able to score from wherever he pleases in this matchup.
One key factor here could be the Hawks’ inability to defend above the break. Fox is shooting only 25.2% from deep in 2021, including 22.2% at home. He doesn’t take many threes, but he hit two last night against the Los Angeles Lakers. If Atlanta is giving Fox open looks from deep, he could post 30+ points if his shot is falling again.
Overall, this is a great matchup for Fox. He’s locked into guard minutes against one of the worst defenses in the NBA against guards. We’re getting a bit of a discount on his price after it took Fox a few games to get back into the swing of things. Although his offensive role isn’t quite as big with Haliburton taking over, Fox has still proven to be an outstanding scorer. He should consistently get to the rim in this matchup, and I’m expecting the young guard to continue to attack in this game.
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