Joel Embiid vs Orlando Magic: NBA Prop Prediction (1/19/22)

We hit somewhat of a rough patch in recent days, although it’s been far from a concerning stretch. More or less, there’s been one bad night. Still, we’re up slightly under 20 units on the season, and we continue to get closing line value (CLV) more often than not. We’ve also far exceeded 250 units bet at this point in the season. In this article, you’ll find my favorite bet for Joel Embiid vs the Orlando Magic. 

Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers will host Orlando at the Wells Fargo Center tonight. The 76ers have seen mixed results throughout the season, posting a 25-18 record thus far. They currently rank sixth in the East as well. The Magic haven’t found nearly as much success, ranking last in the East with an 8-37 record. Philadelphia is currently a -11.5 point favorite in a game set at 214 points tonight. 

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Joel Embiid vs Orlando Magic

Joel Embiid over 28.5 points (-105) vs Orlando Magic

Embiid’s enjoyed another elite season for the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s averaging 27.3 points in 32.5 minutes per game through 32 contests. He’s also shooting 48.4% from the field, 38% from deep, and 81.4% from the line. 

Embiid’s taken on a massive role in the Philadelphia offense in recent games. He’s scored 30+ points in 10 of his last 11 games. He’s also averaging 31.9 points in 32.7 minutes per game over his last 14. Over that span, he’s shooting 53.5% from the field, 39.1% from beyond the arc, and 83.2% from the line. 

Embiid’s a player that looks unstoppable when he catches first, and that’s been the case recently. He’s posted 30+ points in 12 of his last 14 games. He hasn’t needed full minutes in all of those games as well. His ability to completely take over the offense is one of the most impressive in the NBA, and he gets an elite matchup on this slate. 

Embiid will face off against the Orlando Magic tonight. According to Fantasy Pros, they’re allowing 21.9 points per game to centers, which ranks 15th in the NBA. With that being said, that number jumps to 27.8 over their last seven games. It’s important to note that Mo Bamba could return tonight, but he isn’t a player that is capable of stopping Embiid at this point. 

The Magic have given up some big point totals to centers in recent games, including Jusuf Nurkic (21), Kristaps Porzingis (23), Montrezl Harrell (16), and Joel Embiid (31). 

Embiid has one of the more interesting shot selections in the NBA. He takes plenty of shots (8.6) per game in the paint. With that being said, his favorite zone is the mid-range. He’s averaging 6.1 shot attempts per game in the mid-range this season, which ranks over 2 shots per game higher than the next closest, Seth Curry, on the team. 

Shot selection will be a key for this game. Orlando isn’t elite in the paint by any means, but they’ve found ways to hold their own in that area. Still, I believe Embiid finds success in the paint throughout this game. With that being said, the Magic are allowing the third-highest field goal percentage (43.9%) in the NBA in the mid-range. They’re also allowing the fifth-most field goal attempts (13) in the mid-range this season. 

Embiid is one of the hottest scorers in the NBA, and he’s nearly unstoppable to guard once he gets started. He recently posted 31 points against Orlando, shooting 12/22 from the field. I’m expecting him to continue to find plenty of success in the mid-range and in the paint throughout this game. This total is set oddly low, which is a bit concerning, specifically in a game with this large of a spread. With that being said, if this game turns into a blowout, it’s likely because of Embiid, and he could find 30+ points once again. 

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