Herbert Jones vs Indiana Pacers: NBA Prop Prediction (1/24/22)
After seeing mixed results for a few days, we’re back on track with a few outstanding days. Over roughly the last week, we’re up around 5 units. It’s been a great week, specifically for underdog bets. We continue to get closing line value (CLV) more often than not, which is a key to long-term success. Overall, we’re up 23.56 units on the season. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet involving Herbert Jones vs the Indiana Pacers.
Jones and the New Orleans Pelicans will host the Pacers at the Smoother King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. Both of these teams have struggled throughout the season. New Orleans ranks 11th in the West with a 17-28 record. Indiana’s found similar struggles, ranking 13th in the East with a 17-30. The Pelicans are currently -3 point favorites in a game set at 215.5 points.
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Jones’ quietly enjoyed an outstanding season for New Orleans in 2021-22. He’s averaging 9.1 points, 3.7 assists, and 1.9 assists in 29.1 minutes per game through 42 contests. He’s shooting 50.2% from the field, 40% from deep, and 81.1% from the line.
Jones’ found tremendous success in terms of steals and blocks as well. He’s averaging 0.9 blocks and 1.5 steals per game thus far. He’s posted 3+ steals and blocks in 8 of his last 11 games, including each of his last two.
Brandon Ingram’s already been ruled out for this game. This will lock Jones into more consistent minutes, and he could see minutes in the high-30s tonight. In six games without Ingram, Jones’ averaging 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks per game.
He also gets an interesting matchup against the Indiana Pacers. They’re allowing 1.6 steals per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros, which ranks as the fifth-most in the NBA. With that being said, they haven’t allowed a ton of blocks to power forwards in 2021. Indiana does allow an average amount of blocks per game, though.
One of the key factors in this game is that this is a different Pacers team than on the season because of the injuries to their bigs. Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner have both been ruled out for this game already.
In two games without Sabonis and Turner, blocks and steals have been available. Nemanja Bjelica and Juan Toscano-Anderson each totaled two blocks and steals in 14 and 15 minutes, respectively. Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, and Andre Iguodala also combined for 8 blocks and steals. Finally, Damion Lee and Gary Payton II each posted 2 steals in a combined 31 minutes.
The Pacers also struggled against the Phoenix Suns. Jae Crowder needed only 23 minutes to record 2 steals. JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo also combined for 6 steals and blocks in 48 minutes between the two of them. Although not all of these players are power forwards, it shows that blocks and steals are currently available against the players that Indiana is running out.
Blocks and steals can be relatively difficult to predict because there isn’t a lot of room for error. With that being said, Jones is elite at recording both, and he’s going to be locked into massive minutes with Ingram out. He gets a plus matchup to record them against lesser players that generally wouldn’t be seeing big minutes without injuries. I’ll gladly take a shot here at plus odds.
Bet 0.5 units on Herbert Jones over 2.5 blocks and steals (+140) to win 0.7 units on DraftKings Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus