Jaylen Brown vs Charlotte Hornets: NBA Prop Prediction (2/2)
It was an outstanding January for my NBA prop bets. We went undefeated on article bets for Bet Karma. Overall, my NBA prop bets went 82-67 in January. The overall profit was +17.36 units. I also profit in three of the four weeks and 16 of 24 days that I bet. We’ll be looking to keep that win streak alive on these article bets tonight. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet involving Jaylen Brown vs the Charlotte Hornets.
Brown and the Boston Celtics will host Charlotte at the TD Garden in Boston, MA tonight. Both of these teams have seen mixed results throughout the season. The Celtics currently sit in ninth place in the East with a 27-25 record. The Hornets own a 28-23 record, sitting seventh in the East. A key here is that both teams are significantly better at home, giving an edge to the Celtics tonight. Boston’s currently a -5.5 point favorite in a game set at 224.5 points.
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Brown’s looked outstanding for the Boston Celtics throughout the season. He’s averaging 24.4 points in 34.2 minutes per game through 38 contests. Overall, he’s shooting 45.9% from the field, 36.1% from deep, and 79.1% from the line.
Brown’s been heating up in recent games. He’s scored 26+ points in each of his last four contests. Over that span, he’s averaging 29 points on 20 field goal attempts, 9.8 three-point attempts, and 5.3 free throw attempts per game. Over that span, Brown posted 30 points in only 24 minutes against the Sacramento Kings.
He gets an elite matchup against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. According to Fantasy Pros, Charlotte’s allowing the third-most points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. They also rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA in points allowed to shooting guards over their last 30 games and last 7.
One factor that could be a key to this game is that the Hornets are allowing a league-high 4.02 three-point makes per game this season. In games that Brown’s made at least four three-pointers this season, he’s averaging 31.3 points per game. He also posted 28+ points in 8 of those 11 games.
Brown’s an extremely versatile option scorer. He attacks from every zone on the floor, ranking in the top-three of Celtics players in field goal attempts per game in each of the five zones. Overall, he’s averaging 16.2 of his 19.2 field goal attempts per game in the paint or beyond the arc, though.
This is a key for this matchup against the Hornets. They’re roughly average or worse in every zone. Charlotte struggles specifically in two zones. They’re allowing the ninth-most field goal attempts per game in the restricted area while ranking roughly average in field goal percentage in that zone. The Hornets are also allowing the second-most three-point attempts above the break this season, giving up the fourth-highest average in that zone.
Brown’s faced off against Charlotte twice this season, seeing mixed results. Overall, he’s averaging 25.5 points per game. In their most recent matchup, Brown posted 21 points in 38 minutes. He shot only 2/11 from deep, though. In their first matchup this season, he recorded 30 points in 38 minutes.
Brown’s an extremely streaky scorer, and he’s caught fire in recent games. He should see plenty of opportunities to find success against a weak Charlotte defense tonight. He’ll likely see 20+ shot attempts with plenty beyond the arc once again. I love this bet at near even odds.
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