Gary Trent Jr. vs Oklahoma City Thunder: NBA Prop Prediction (2/9)
After a great January, we started February out with a tough loss on the Jaylen Brown article last week. Even with a slow start to February overall, we’re up over 30 units on the year. It’s been an outstanding run thus far with wins far more often than not. In this article, I’ll be outlining my favorite bet involving Gary Trent Jr. vs the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Trent and the Toronto Raptors will be traveling to the Paycom Center for a matchup against Oklahoma City tonight. These teams are going opposite directions on the season, as the Raptors sit in sixth in the East with a 29-23 record. The Thunder currently own a 17-36 record, ranking second-last in the West. Toronto’s currently a -9.5 point favorite in a game set at 208.5 points.
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Trent’s enjoying the best season of his career thus far for the Toronto Raptors. He’s averaging 18.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.8 steals in 34.5 minutes per game. He’s also shooting 43.1% from the 40.1% from deep, and 81.1% from the line.
Trent’s caught fire over his last eight games. He’s seen elite matchups for his position over that span, scoring 30+ points in five of those eight games. Overall, Trent’s averaging 27.5 points per game over that span. More importantly for this bet, he’s averaging 5.1 3PM on 10.3 3PA per game. He’s posted 4+ 3PM in seven of his last nine games.
Trent gets an interesting matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. They’re allowing the third-most three-point attempts (38.6) and fifth-most three-point makes (13.2) in the NBA this season. The Thunder boast a slightly above average defense in terms of three-point percentage (34.3%) this season, but I prefer volume over anything, especially with a shooter like Trent.
Over his last eight-game run, he’s averaging 7.5 three-point attempts above the break and a team-high 2.8 attempts in the corner. He’s also shooting 48.3% above the break and 54.5% in the corner. Oklahoma City’s with volume in both zone, ranking in the bottom-six of three-point attempts allowed per game in each section. They’re also allowing the ninth-highest three-point percentage (39%) in the corner this season.
Overall, the Thunder have struggled at times against shooting guards. They’re giving up the ninth-most points (22.4) and seventh-most 3PM (3.4) per game to the position, according to FantasyPros. Oklahoma City’s found more success against the shooting guard in recent games, but I don’t expect them to have an answer for Trent tonight.
The biggest concern in this game is the obvious blowout risk. It’s the reason I’m only putting half of a unit on this bet. The Raptors are -9.5 point favorites, and the Thunder continue to deal with several injuries throughout their rotation. With that being said, Toronto loves running their players for massive minutes, so even if this game does get out of hand, Trent and company should see decent run.
I nearly bet his points over 18.5 tonight, but I don’t want to pay the juice at -120. If you can get odds significantly closer to even at over 19.5, I’ll likely take half of a unit on that as well. Again, there’s simply too much blowout concern here.
Bet 0.5 units on Gary Trent Jr. over 3.5 3PM (+105) to win 0.53 units on DraftKings Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus