Miles Bridges vs Utah Jazz: NBA Prop Prediction (3/25)
We’re coming off of a tough loss on Zach LaVine’s points from the other day. Essentially, we’re at the point in the season where we’re consistently dealing with weird rotations and blowouts on what seems to be a nightly basis. It’s tough to navigate the NBA waters at this point in the season, but we continue to push through, as we’re up nearly 35 units on the year. In this article, I’ll discuss my favorite bet involving Miles Bridges vs the Utah Jazz.
Bridges and the Charlotte Hornets are hosting the Jazz at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. Both teams are vying for seeding in the playoffs at this point in the season. Charlotte’s currently in ninth in the East, although they’re only five games out of fifth. Utah’s sitting in fourth in the West, although they’re only a couple of games out of third and they’re tied with the Dallas Mavericks, meaning a loss could drop them to fifth. The Hornets are currently +3.5 point underdogs in a game set at 230.5 points tonight.
You can track your bet history across multiple sportsbooks with our new fully automated Bet Tracker! You can also find your pending bets along with your individual performance by sport!
Remember to always shop for the best lines possible, using the BetKarma Props Comparison and Odds Comparison pages. If you aren’t sure which sportsbooks are available in your state, check out our Where to Bet page.
Get access to our proprietary sports betting prediction models, such as our Prop Predictor by signing up here.
Bridges has been enjoying an outstanding season for Charlotte. He’s averaging 19.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.0 steal in 35.5 minutes per game through 71 contests. He’s been somewhat inefficient, shooting 48.7% from the field, 32% from deep, and 80.8% from the line this season.
The key to this bet is his recent passing success. Bridges posted 5+ assists in five of his last six games. Over that span, he’s averaging 6.3 assists per game. He recorded three assists in the only game he failed to hit the mark, and he posted nine assists in two of those six contests.
Oddly enough, Bridges passes are actually down over that span. He’s averaging 40.7 passes per game on the season. That number dips to 37.7 over his last 6 games. Although that’s somewhat of a concern, the number hasn’t dropped enough to move off of this bet.
While it’s true that Bridges’ passing is down a bit in recent games, he’s making more important passes leading to potential baskets. He’s averaging 7.2 potential assists per game with a 54.2% assist to potential assist ratio on the season. His potential assists jump to 9 over his last 6 games and his rate increases to 70% over that span.
Bridges gets an interesting matchup against the Utah Jazz tonight. They’ve been struggling against forwards in recent games. According to FantasyPros, Utah’s allowing the 12th-most assists per game to small forwards over their last 7 games. Although this isn’t necessarily an elite number, Bridges doesn’t solely play small forward for Charlotte.
He’s certainly been playing more of the position with Gordon Hayward out, although he’ll also spend plenty of time at power forward. That will be the key tonight. The Jazz are giving up the fifth-most assists per game to power forwards over that span.
There’s inherent risk betting the assists on a player that isn’t necessarily known as an elite passer. With that being said, these odds make no sense. Bridges hit this in five of his last six games, and he’s consistently found more than enough potential assists to continue to find success. Even over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 8.8 potential assists per game. This line should be significantly closer to even or potentially negative odds. I’m happy to put a unit on it.
Bet 1 unit on Miles Bridges o4.5 assists (+126) to win 1.26 units on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to $1,000 risk free bet