Duke vs North Carolina - Final Four Betting Preview
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Duke vs North Carolina - Final Four Betting Preview

Greg Domsic
03-30-2022

Duke vs North Carolina - Final Four Betting Preview

In one of the craziest NCAA Tournaments college basketball has ever seen, we are now left with a complete Blue Blood Final Four!  Kansas vs Villanova.  Duke vs North Carolina.  It's hard to believe Duke and North Carolina are meeting for the first time in NCAA Tournament history... and it just happens to be in the Final Four.... in Coach K's last season... and Coach Hubert Davis' first season.  Who wrote this script?  Because they did an excellent job!

The two teams met twice already in ACC play.  Duke won by 20 in the Dean Dome, and then North Carolina spoiled Coach K's final home game.  You do not want to miss this epic rubber match Saturday night.

I have THREE bets in this game that I like.  When you're ready to place your own bets, make sure to get the best odds available by checking BetKarma's free Odds Comparison tool, and then track those winners with BetKarma's free Bet Tracker.

Game Total - Over or Under

Both of these teams actually have a lot in common.  They both prefer up-tempo pace of play, rank top 20 in offensive efficiency, top 50 in 3 point percentage, and have statistically better offense than defense.  The previous two matchups ended with 175 total points and 154 total points.  UNC's Leaky Black is the lone elite defender in this game, but there are various lethal perimeter shooters - Brady Manek, RJ Davis, Caleb Love, AJ Griffin, and Wendell Moore all shoot 37% or better from three.  With an over/under of 151 for Saturday's game, I certainly favor the over.  Points, points, points!

Total Bet: Over 151 -105

Odds via PointsBet

Matchup - Duke or UNC

At this point in the tournament, I would not be completely shocked if any of these four blue bloods won the national championship.  WIth that said, I certainly think the favorites in each game are well deserved.  Duke is playing like the best team in the country.  They have the most future-NBA talent.  They seem like the team of destiny.  

North Carolina has shot the heck out of the ball this tournament, aside from the St. Peter's game where they physically dominated the Peacocks.  Duke has made considerably less threes than UNC, but Duke made them more efficiently.  Duke relies more heavily on their two point offense, which in general is more reliable and less susceptible to a cold shooting night.  Duke has a lethal transition attack, and I think UNC's up-tempo pace will allow transition opportunities.  More importantly, Duke has been closing games with one of the best half court offenses in the country (9th most efficient non-transition offense, per Hoop-Math), and an insanely efficient late game iso-game. 

One of those closers is Sophomore point guard Jeremy Roach, who has been a revelation in this tournament.  With the extended media timeouts that come with March Madness, many coaches cut down their rotation.  Coach K and Jon Scheyer did just that, as Roach has played at least 35 minutes per game in the NCAA Tournament.  Roach is averaging neary 13 points per game in that stretch, compared to just 8.6 on the season.  He scored 49 points combined (12.25 ppg avg.) in his previous four games matched up with UNC's Caleb Love.  I like Roach to score in double figures here, including some key floaters in the clutch to help Duke win in crunch time.

Spread Bet: Duke -4 -110

Prop Bet: Jeremy Roach over 9.5 points -135

Odds via DraftKings

 

Follow me on Twitter @Dom_MSU 


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