MLB Best Bets - 4/7

MLB Best Bets - 4/7

The wait is over! 2022 MLB season is finally here! Whether you’re a season veteran or brand new to MLB betting these articles will provide game analysis along with my favorite plays of the day.

Mother nature PPD 2 games already leaving us with a seven-game slate.

 

MLB Best Bets: Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs

Last year the Brewers were an impressive 15-4 against the Cubs. After making some offseason moves the Brewers remain the favorite to win the NL Central. The Cubs big offseason acquisition was Seiya Suzuki who is now favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year.

Corbin Burnes will be on the bump for Milwaukee. While he only faced Chicago three times last year his performance was incredible. Burnes held a 1.35 ERA only allowing three runs and keeping their bats at a quiet .169 OBA. Last season the Cubs lead the league in strikeouts while Burnes had 5th most strikeouts.

Kyle Hendricks will be Chicago’s starter. Last year he saw Milwaukee four times and allowed a 6.14 ERA, 15 ER, 5 HR, and a .308 OBA. Last year Hendricks allowed a horrendous 40.6% hard contact %. He really struggles against left-handed batters (LHB) allowing a .364 OBA and .892 OPS. Milwaukee’s projected lineup has five LHB.

Prediction

One thing for you new MLB bettors to know is when the wind in Wrigley is blowing out attack the over. This game total opened at 7.5 and after seeing winds blowing out to center at 15+ mph it quickly moved to 10.5 and even 11 on some books.

I am not expecting Cubs to put up many runs if any. Getting over 10.5 will fall heavily on the Brewers bats. I’ll take that chance.

Bet: game total over 10.5 (-110); Milwaukee team total (TT) over 5.5 (-115)

 

MLB Best Bets: New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

Do you know what team holds the best opening day record? If you guessed the New York Mets, you’re correct! The Mets have a 39-21 record on opening day. Francisco Lindor only played 125 games last season and some of them he was playing injured. That does not appear to be the case coming into 2022 season. Lindor had a solid 1.048 OPS in spring training.

Unfortunately, Degrom will not be starting due to a shoulder injury. Next man up Scherzer? Wrong!  Scherzer is dealing with hamstring tightness causing him to get scratched as well. Mets will start Tyler Megill who is coming off an impressive rookie season. Last year Megill had a 26.1% strikeout rate. Megill’s downfall is against LHB. To LHB he allowed a .406 wOBA, 40.2% hard contact %, and a 51.6% flyball rate. I have a strong intuition Juan Soto will be going yard.

The Nationals will be starting Patrick Corbin. Last year Corbin did have his struggles against the Mets allowing a 4.76 ERA, 5 HR, and .319 OBA. His hard contact % was 46%. He also appears to be a split pitcher allowing RHB .391 wOBA and LHB .269 wOBA. Last year Washington relievers had the second worst FIP 4.86. If Corbin gets in trouble early Mets could pour on the runs.

Prediction

I am keeping this one simple. Follow the team with the best opening day record. New York Mets. I also think the game total of 9 is achievable. Both team totals sit at 4.5 and based off Washington’s bullpen last year I would take Mets getting over 4.5 before Nationals.

Bet: Mets moneyline (-135); slight lean on Mets team total over 4.5 as well.

Homerun prediction: Juan Soto

 

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