MLB Best Bets - 4/8

MLB Best Bets – 4/8

What a start to Opening Day! Cardinals made the Pirates walk the plank in a 9-0 shutout that had three homeruns. Top AL Rookie of the Year candidate Bobby Witt Jr stepped up in his major league debut and hit the go-ahead RBI getting the Royals a win in their home opener.

 As of now we have a huge 13 game slate and should see some great baseball!

 

MLB Best Bets: Boston Redsox vs New York Yankees

We start out with one of the best rivalries in sports. Last year the Redsox edged out their rival winning the series 10-9. After some offseason acquisitions Redsox welcome superstar Trevor Story and part ways with Hunter Renfroe and bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. The Yankees made some moves as well signing first basemen Anthony Rizzo to a two year $32M contract.

Yankees starter will be 2021 Cy Young runner up Gerrit Cole. While Cole causes many teams trouble the Redsox hold their own against him. Last year against the Redsox he finished with a 4.91 ERA, 12 ER, and .279 OBA. Cole relies on his slider for success and last year the Redsox were the best team against sliders. Fortunately, if things go south for him, he has a bullpen that lead the league in xFIP last year at an impressive 3.78.

Redsox will start hard throwing righty Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi saw the Yankees six times last season where he held a 3.71 ERA only allowing 14 earned runs. Eovaldi BvP does not show anything to be too concerned about. Besides his fastball his next most thrown pitch is curverball. The Yankees were top ten against the curve last year.

Prediction

I believe these teams are familiar enough with one another to gets some runs on the board. Last year only four of the nineteen games played were within 1 run.

I am seeing the Yankees favored -175 to win the game which tells me there’s some value in Boston’s moneyline. Especially for a Redsox team that has full confidence against New York’s ace. I have respect for both these pitchers, so I like the under 4.5 F5 at -115.

Bet: under 4.5 F5 -115

 

MLB Best Bets: Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants

I love this matchup! In my opinion the Marlins have one of the sneakiest farm systems when it comes to pitching. Last year San Francisco showed out winning 107 games and absolutely crushing teams that had less than a .500 win percentage. They went 72-27!?

Miami is throwing Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara is a ground ball pitcher that limits hard contact as well as has great control. Last year he had an impressive 3.42 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. The issues come on the road. Last year had a road ERA of 4.01 and home ERA of 2.41. He throws three pitches, fastball, changeup, and slider. Last year San Francisco was third best against fastball, bottom ten against the slider, and just above average against the change up.

San Francisco is starting Logan Webb. He only saw Miami once last year but held them to three hits, no runs, and eight strikeouts. Logan throws the same three pitches Alcantara does. The difference is Miami was dead last against fastball last year and bottom ten in the other two pitches.

Prediction

These are two young and hungry pitchers.

With Vegas setting game total at 7.5 it tells me they believe pitching will be a big part of this game. Since I like the two starters lets roll with F5 under 3.5.

Bet: under 3.5 F5 -105

 

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