MLB Expert Picks for Tuesday’s Games – Blue Jays vs Yankees, Padres vs Giants and more (4/12)

MLB Expert Picks for Tuesday’s Games – Blue Jays vs Yankees, Padres vs Giants and more (4/12)

Monday had some unexpected upsets around the league. Detroit upset the Red Sox with Javy Baez’s late two-run homerun in the bottom eighth. Colorado had some late inning heroics where CJ Cron and Connor Joe each hit a homerun to propel them past Texas. The Orioles even got a win on their home opener.

Tuesday, we have four afternoon games, but I am zoning in on the night slate.

 

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees: Battle Of The Lefties!

At the time of writing this article Toronto is currently throwing a two-hit shutout against the Yankees. The Blue Jays are off to a great start this season as are the Yankees.

Toronto will be throwing LHP Kikuchi. Kikuchi is a split pitcher. Last season he had a .478 OPS against left-handed batters but a .830 against right-handed batters. In the two games against the Yankees last season, he had a 4.50 ERA, allowed 12 hits, and a .286 OBA. His main pitches are fastball and cutter. However, his cutter allows a .401 wOBA and 18% whiff rate.

The Yankees will start a southpaw as well, Nestor Cortes. Cortes has had limited exposure to the Blue Jays last season. He only saw them one game where he had a 3.0 ERA, allowed two homeruns, five strikeouts, and a .261 OBA. Cortes has good control only allowing 6% walk rate. The unfortunate thing for Yankees fans is he is a major flyball pitcher with a 50% flyball rate.

Prediction

I am not interested in either starter. Last year both teams were top ten against LHP. When it comes to bullpens, I am choosing the Yankees. Last year they had a 3.77 xFIP as opposed to Toronto’s 4.27.

Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites. I think the deciding factor is Toronto’s success against LHP. I know the Yankees have success against lefties as well, but Cortes being a heavy flyball pitcher is just setting up George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Vlad Guerrero Jr to have a big day.

Bet: Toronto moneyline (+107) via WynnBET Sportsbooks

Homerun prediction: Teoscar Hernandez

 

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: National League West Pitching Duel

Both these teams are all too familiar with one another. Last season the Giants edged out the series going 11-8 against the Padres.

The Padres will be throwing RHP Yu Darvish. Darvish saw the Giants four times last year and while he racked up a total of 29 strikeouts, he also allowed a 5.82 ERA. To make matters worse, he allowed seven homeruns. The main issue with Darvish is the 43.7% flyball rate and 38.5% hard hit percentage.

For the Giants we will see RHP Alex Cobb. Cobb did not get a chance to see the Padres last year. Last season he had an impressive 3.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Cobb has a 52.6% ground ball rate. He also limits hard contact. Cobb does his best when at home. He had a 2.22 ERA at home last season as opposed to his 5.44 on the road.

Prediction

San Francisco was one of the best home teams in 2021 season going 54-27. San Diego not so lucky on the road going 34-47.

Vegas set this game as a pick’em. While Darvish has had his struggles against the Giants, I think he bounces back and has a strong outing. The Padres bats are just too inconsistent to me, so I think Cobb deals fine against them. I think we see a pitching duel in this matchup.

Bet: under 4 F5 (-105) via BetMGM ; lean Giants moneyline (-103) via WynnBET Sportsbooks

 

Like the MLB Expert Picks? Join Bet Karma’s FREE discord chat. Take it to the next level and sign up for one of the deals offered on Bet Karma's Premium Betting Membership. Make sure you are shopping for the best prices using Bet Karma’s #1 Sports Betting Odds Comparison Tool. Track all the bets, props, and futures using Bet Karma’s Bet Tracker.

 

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @party_marty13