Pablo Lopez vs Arizona Diamondbacks: MLB Player Prop Prediction (5/2)

The Miami Marlins are one of the hottest teams in the MLB, winning 8 of their last 10 games. They’re currently sitting second in the NL East with a surprising 12-9 record. They’ll host the Arizona Diamondbacks at LoanDepot Park in Miami, Florida tonight. Arizona’s been somewhat surprising this season, as they were expected to be one of the worst teams in the MLB. They only own a 10-13 record thus far, but they’ve generally been more competitive than expected. With that being said, there’s one major hole in their team. In this article, you’ll find my favorite bet for Pablo Lopez vs the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

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Pablo Lopez vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Pablo Lopez over 5.5 strikeouts (+100) vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Unsurprisingly, Lopez has taken the next step forward in his development for the Miami Marlins. Through 4 starts, he boasts a 3-0 record with a 0.39 ERA. He also owns an outstanding 2.59 xFIP. 

His strikeout rate dipped slightly from 27.5% last season to 27.1% this season. With that being said, he’s seen increases in his outside the zone swing, first-strike, swinging-strike, called strike, and called-swinging-strike percentages. Furthermore, he’s seen a decrease in zone-swing and zone contact percentages. 

Ultimately, this suggests that Lopez should have a higher strikeout rate than he posted last season, and if these averages are sustained, we could see it increase to roughly 30% throughout the year. 

Although it hasn’t been the case early this season, Lopez has always been a better pitcher at home. He boasts a 3.58 xFIP and 23.8% strikeout rate in Miami compared to a 4.14 xFIP and a 22.3% strikeout rate on the road. The differences aren’t drastic, but throwing at home should help him throw deeper into this game, giving him more opportunities for strikeouts. 

The young right-hander has also been significantly better against right-handed batters, specifically in terms of strikeouts, throughout his career. He enters this game with a 27.7% strikeout rate against righties. Comparatively, he owns an 18.9% strikeout rate against left-handed batters. 

Lopez gets a great matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Although they aren’t littered with right-handed batters like some teams, they do feature four righties throughout their lineup. 

The other key to this bet is Arizona’s inability to consistently hit right-handed pitching. They lead the MLB with a 26.4% strikeout rate against righties, while also ranking 24th in OPS. The only concern with their offense is that they tend to take a lot of pitches and draw walks, which can run up the pitch count.

Ultimately, I believe Lopez is too talented to struggle with this offense. He should be able to throw at least 6 innings, and I believe he has the potential to record at least 1 strikeout per inning. These odds aren’t wide enough, and I expect them to increase throughout the day. 

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