Kevin Gausman vs Cleveland Guardians: MLB Player Prop Prediction (5/6)
We suffered a heartbreaking loss in the Miami Marlins game last night. They had plenty of opportunities throughout the first five innings, but they couldn’t capitalize on them. Instead, we lost the moneyline bet 2-1 with both runs coming from solo Manny Machado home runs. I can’t think of something much worse than our pitcher shutting down everyone except for one batter and still picking up the loss. That’s the way baseball works when you can’t find runs, though. We’re going to shift to a pitching prop tonight with the being seemingly clear value on one of the best arms in the MLB. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet involving Kevin Gausman vs the Cleveland Guardians.
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It’s no secret that MLB pitchers go to the San Francisco Giants to revive their careers. It’s also no secret that the Giants refuse to give out massive deals to starters, and they generally leave once their contract is up. The surprising part of Gausman is that he continued his elite success from San Francisco early in his tenure for the Toronto Blue Jays.
He’s looked elite this season, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.27 ERA over 5 starts. His elite ERA is backed by a ridiculous 1.61 xFIP as well. Gausman also boasts elite strikeout metrics at this point in the season.
He enters this game with an 11.7 K/9 through 31.2 innings. He’s recorded 8+ strikeouts in each of his last 4 games, totaling 36 strikeouts over his last 26.2 innings. Gausman’s also posted a career-high 33.6% strikeout rate thus far.
Are these metrics sustainable, though? There are two ways to look at this. First, based on his current production, they are sustainable. He boasts an absurd 21.1% swinging-strike rate to go along with a 34.6% CSW% this season. He owns a ridiculous 53.9% outside the zone swinging percentage. His contact rate is also the lowest of his career.
The second way to look at is that these numbers are sustainable for how he’s throwing, but how long can he continue to throw at this elite of a level? It depends on how good you believe Gausman truly is. One important aspect to look at is that he’s throwing his slider nearly 10% more this season, and that’s a pitch that generally creates swing-and-misses.
Ultimately, I’m not sure these elite rates are sustainable for Gausman, but I do believe he’s one of the best pitchers in the MLB at the moment. I don’t love the matchup against the Cleveland Guardians, who haven’t been striking out all that much against right-handed pitching. With that being said, we’re getting plus odds well below the threshold that Gausman’s consistently beaten this season. I’ll take that against any team.
Bet 0.5 units on Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts (+108) to win 0.54 units on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to $1,000 risk free bet