Chris Flexen vs Philadelphia Phillies: MLB Player Prop Prediction (5/9)
Our last article was on Friday when there was a ridiculous amount of weather issues. Unfortunately, Kevin Gausman’s game against the Cleveland Guardians was rained out, and we were simply refunded our money. It won’t go on the record as a bet for the season. We’re sticking with an MLB pitching prop for tonight, as I feel there is one player’s line that is shockingly high on this slate. In this article, you’ll find my favorite bet involving Chris Flexen vs the Philadelphia Phillies.
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Chris Flexen’s thrown well this season, but his strikeout prop is one of the most shocking I’ve seen thus far. Through 5 starts, he’s posted a 1-4 record with a 3.10 ERA. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, as he enters this game with a 4.55 xFIP as well. With that being said, Flexen avoided regression over 31 starts last season, and he may be a pitcher that will consistently throw better than his xFIP.
I’m not entirely sure that matters tonight, though. He’s recorded a 5.28 K/9 through 29 innings this season. He’s struggled with strikeouts throughout his entire MLB career as well. Flexen posted a 6.26 K/9 over 179.2 innings last season, and he owns a 6.21 K/9 throughout his career.
His strikeout rate sits at 14.8% this season, and that’s slightly below his career average. It’s important to note that his swinging strike rate is a bit higher than his career average, although his called strike rate is slightly below. Ultimately, I’d expect Flexen to see a small uptick in strikeouts as the season progresses.
That shouldn’t matter for this bet, though. Flexen’s recorded 5 or fewer strikeouts per game this season. He’s only gone over 3 strikeouts twice. Overall, he’s averaging 3.4 strikeouts per game.
Flexen does get a solid matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. They’re striking out at the 12th-highest rate (23.2%) in the league over the last 14 days. Philadelphia also ranks ninth in the MLB in wOBA over that span, as they have plenty of upside throughout their offense.
The Phillies also don’t strike out at as high of a rate against right-handed pitching. They sit at 19th in the league in that category. Furthermore, they rank sixth in the MLB in OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
There are essentially two ways that we can win this bet. First, Flexen finally sees some regression and the Phillies get to him early. He doesn’t have the strikeout stuff to record 6+ strikeouts without throwing deep into the game. Second, he could continue to throw well but not record strikeouts. The Phillies haven’t been as strikeout-heavy of a team as many projected, and Flexen isn’t a pitcher that relies heavily on strikeouts. It wouldn’t be shocking if he throws 7 innings and still doesn’t hit the over.
Bet 0.55 units on Chris Flexen under 5.5 strikeouts (-110) to win 0.5 units on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to $1,000 risk free bet