Joel Embiid vs Miami Heat: NBA Player Prop Prediction (5/10)

We’re coming off of one of our best bets so far in the MLB season. Early in the day, we bet Chris Flexen under 5.5 strikeouts. By the time the game started, most of the books offered the line at 3.5 strikeouts, giving us a 2 strikeout edge. We also bet it at -110 odds, but the under on 4.5 strikeouts was set around -160 by the time the game started. It was one of the largest line movements I’ve seen in recent memory, and it resulted in a win, as he ended with 5 strikeouts. We’re shifting our focus over to NBA for the Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat game. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet involving Joel Embiid vs the Miami Heat. 

You can track your bet history across multiple sportsbooks with our new fully automated Bet Tracker! You can also find your pending bets along with your individual performance by sport! 

Remember to always shop for the best lines possible, using the BetKarma Props Comparison and Odds Comparison pages. If you aren’t sure which sportsbooks are available in your state, check out our Where to Bet page. 

Get access to our proprietary sports betting prediction models, such as our Prop Predictor by signing up here. 

 

Joel Embiid vs Miami Heat

Joel Embiid over 25.5 points (-108) vs Miami Heat

We’re in uncharted territory on this bet. Am I’m banking on Joel Embiid just dominating the Miami Heat? Not quite. On the season, he’s averaging only 22.6 points per game in 5 matchups against Miami. He’s shooting significantly below his season averages as well. 

So why do we trust this bet? This is a very specific game for Embiid to prove his worth. I don’t mean people don’t believe he’s good. But this is the first game since Nikola Jokic was named the MVP instead of Embiid. This is also the first road game he’s playing in since coming back. It’s easy to say that Philadelphia won games that they should have with Embiid at home in Philadelphia. If he can take a third consecutive game from the Heat in Miami, there’s no way around Embiid being arguably the most important player to his team in the NBA. 

On top of that, he’s playing against Bam Adebayo, who is generally seen as one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA. Embiid can put a stamp on this series in this game, and it will start with him scoring the ball. 

He played 38 minutes in their last game, suggesting he’s healthy enough to play as many minutes as necessary at this point in the playoffs. He also scored 24 points on only 13 shot attempts. The key here is that Embiid scored his 24th point in the third quarter and didn’t score after that. There is virtually no chance that Philly’s star player will go another fourth quarter without any points. 

On paper, I don’t truly like the matchup for Embiid. But the series is tied, and the Sixers have to steal a game in Miami to advance. We also know that Embiid is the type of player that will want to prove the voters wrong about the MVP award. It’s the perfect storm for the big man to have one of his best games of a season where he averaged 30 points per game. 

Bet 1.08 units on Joel Embiid over 25.5 points (-108) to win 1 unit on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to $1,000 risk free bet