Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants: MLB Prediction (5/11)
We shifted over to the NBA with our last article bet, and it didn’t pay off. I backed Joel Embiid in the opportunity to show that the MVP voters were wrong to give Nikola Jokic the award. That didn’t happen, though, as he scored only 17 points in a crucial 35-point loss. This isn’t the exact type of game that I was expecting from Embiid, but we have to give props to the Miami Heat for forcing the ball out of his hands. He shot well over 50% from the field, but the attempts simply weren’t there. We’re shifting gears for this article, and I’ll outline my favorite bet for the Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants below.
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This is an interesting situation, and I’m slightly surprised we’re getting even odds on this bet. First and foremost, the Colorado Rockies aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home. They’ve struggled to cover the run line outside of Coors, posting a 5-9 run line record on the road this season.
The biggest key to this bet will be the pitching. Alex Cobb hasn’t looked great through 4 starts as he continues to deal with injuries. With that being said, his baseline metrics don’t tell the whole story. He owns a 1-1 record with a 4.80 ERA. Cobb also possesses a 2.05 xFIP to go along with a 1.24 xERA and 2.30 SIERA. In other words, he’s due for quite a bit of positive regression.
Cobb’s also a ground ball pitcher with strikeout potential. This is the easiest way to limit opponents' success, while also allowing only a 14.6% hard-hit rate through 15 innings this season.
On the other side, Chad Kuhl’s looked good early this season. He boasts a 3-0 record with a 1.82 ERA through 5 starts. With that being said, his 3.84 xFIP suggests he’s been getting a bit lucky. His .179 BABIP also backs up that statement.
The bullpens are likely to play a big factor in this game, specifically for the Giants. San Francisco ranks 11th in the MLB in bullpen xFIP, and they’re seeming getting better as the season progresses. Colorado, on the other hand, ranks 29th in the same category. It’s clear that the Giants will have a massive pitching edge over the Rockies in this game.
The offenses are where it gets a bit interesting. San Francisco hasn’t been overly dominant, ranking 15th in the MLB in wOBA over the last 14 days. Over that span, Colorado ranks ninth in the league.
That doesn’t tell the entire story, though. When you add a few more stipulations, you can see how terrible the Rockies' offense could be in this situation. They rank second-last in the MLB with a ridiculously low .541 OPS on the road against right-handed pitching.
We’re getting even odds on a team that should be better in every facet of the game tonight.
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