James Kaprielian vs Detroit Tigers: MLB Player Prop Prediction
The San Francisco Giants came through with a sweat-free win on their run line yesterday. It looked questionable in the beginning, as they consistently had runners on but weren’t able to capitalize. It didn’t take long before that changed, though, and they ended up beating the Colorado Rockies by a comfortable number. We’re shifting back to player props for this article, and I’m going to outline my favorite bet involving James Kaprielian vs the Detroit Tigers below.
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This bet is actually pretty simple for me because I believe it’s way off. It’s important to note the money is coming in on the under, which caused this to jump to 4.5 strikeouts in the normal listing. I’ve always said that you need maximum conviction when betting MLB, though, and this is where I’m planting my flag.
Kaprielian’s only thrown in two games so far this season. He owns an 0-2 record with a 5.87 ERA over 7.2 innings. His struggles look legitimate, as he also owns a 4.85 xFIP in those innings.
With that being said, he’s posted 9 strikeouts thus far. He owns a 10.6 K/9, which is slightly higher than his career average (9.4). His advanced metrics aren’t overly kind to him, as he’s posted the lowest swinging-strike (8.3%) and CSW (28.2%) rates in his career thus far.
The key here is that Kaprielian’s throwing his slider at the highest rate of his career in limited innings this season. If he continues that, he should garner more swings and misses as the season progresses. In other words, his sample size is a bit too limited to trust at the moment.
Arguably the biggest key here is his matchup against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have struggled against right-handed pitching the entire season. They currently strike out at the 10th-highest rate (24.1%) in the MLB. They also rank 28th in batting average (.206), 30th in slugging percentage (.288), and 29th in OPS (.565) against right-handed pitching this season.
Furthermore, the Tigers are striking out at the 10th-highest rate (24.2%) in the league over the last 14 days. Over that span, they rank 28th in the MLB in wOBA (.253).
Kaprielian isn’t necessarily an elite pitcher, but he can pile up strikeouts. He gets an ideal matchup, and we’re getting surprising odds after he recorded 7 strikeouts on 99 pitches in his last game.
Bet 0.5 units on James Kaprielian over 5.5 strikeouts (+164) to win 0.82 units on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to $1,000 risk free bet
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