Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins: MLB Prediction (5/13)

We’re coming off of a terrible loss with James Kaprielian yesterday. He had a good matchup and consistently had two strikes on Detroit Tigers batters. It didn’t matter, though, as he struggled to put away any of them. The odds were great, but Kaprielian didn’t come anywhere near hitting the mark. We’re coming back with another MLB bet here, although we’re sticking to a full game rather than player props. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet for the Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins game. 

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins under 6.5 runs (-115)

There is one specific reason I’m backing the under in this game - pitching. Corbin Burnes and Pablo Lopez have been two of the best starting pitchers in the MLB, although that isn’t where the elite pitching ends. Milwaukee and Miami have two of the best bullpens in the MLB as well. 

Burnes enters this game with a 1-2 record and 1.86 ERA through 6 starts. His numbers are backed by a dominant 2.38 xFIP as well. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 5 starts as well. Burnes has the ability to go 7 innings without giving up any runs. He’s truly one of the very few dominant pitchers in the MLB. 

Although the innings are limited, Burnes has been a dominant option against right-handed pitching this season. He owns a 2.08 xFIP along with a 39.5% strikeout rate against righties. As if that isn’t enough, his walk rate sits at only 3.7% to that handedness. This is key because Miami’s offense is littered with right-handed batters. 

On the other side, Pablo Lopez’s quietly been one of the best pitchers in the MLB. He’s posted a 4-1 record with a 1.00 ERA through 6 starts. His ERA is backed by a dominant 2.88 xFIP as well. 

I’m a bit concerned about Lopez’s struggles with left-handed batters, although struggles is a strong word. I’m willing to overlook it in favor of his home/road splits, though. Lopez was elite at home last season, posting an xFIP over 1 run better than on the road. He’s looked elite at home early this season as well. 

Once the starters are out of the game, it isn’t likely to get much easier. Miami quietly ranks fifth in the MLB in bullpen xFIP this season. They also lead the league in bullpen xFIP over the last 14 days. Milwaukee’s also found plenty of success, ranking eighth in bullpen xFIP this season. They're typically seen as one of the best bullpens in the MLB, though, and their success isn’t nearly as shocking. 

The obvious concern is Milwaukee’s recent offensive success. They lead the league by a wide margin in wOBA over the last 14 days. I’m backing elite pitching over hot hitter, specifically in a pitcher-friendly stadium. 

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