Minnesota Twins vs Oakland A's: MLB Prediction (5/16)
We’re coming off of a win with the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins. We backed two elite arms, and they looked dominant throughout the game. Granted, we bet an extremely low total, but the game was truly close to finding the over. We’re going back to the well with baseball tonight, as the NBA playoffs are taking the night off. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet for the Minnesota Twins vs Oakland A’s tonight.
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This is a game that I’m extremely interested in for a number of reasons. The most obvious one is the odds of two teams that are going in opposite directions. Minnesota currently leads the AL Central, although they’re only 7-7 on the road. With that being said, Oakland’s sitting in last in the AL West, recording a 5-12 home record thus far.
Chris Archer will take the mound for the Twins, and he’s seen mixed results throughout the season. He owns an 0-1 record with a 4.43 ERA, but he hasn’t pitched deep enough into any game this season to be eligible for the win. Archer’s ERA is relatively accurate, as he also owns a 4.57 xFIP.
Zach Logue will be taking the mound for the A’s tonight. He’s thrown well through 3 games (2 starts) with a 2-1 record and 1.35 ERA. With that being said, it doesn’t tell the whole story. He also owns a 4.12 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for quite a bit of regression.
As if that isn’t enough, there’s no real reason to believe that Logue is going to be a great MLB arm. He was drafted late in the ninth round of the 2017 Amateur Draft and wasn’t an outstanding prospect. In his only full season in Triple-A, he posted a 4.10 xFIP.
Essentially, Archer isn’t throwing well, but he’s throwing as expected. Logue’s throwing significantly better than he’ll be able to sustain throughout the season. There will be a point in time where he struggles mightily, potentially for a stretch of games.
I’m not overly concerned with the starting pitchers, though. This game is about offense and bullpens. The Twins have found solid offensive success over the last 14 days, posting a .320 wOBA. They also rank seventh in the MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Minnesota’s a high upside offense that’s been playing well at the moment.
Oakland isn’t in the same boat. They own a slate-low .240 wOBA over the last 14 days. They also rank last in the MLB in OPS against right-handed pitching in 2022. This is an offense that struggles to produce, and that should be the case again tonight.
Bullpens will also be key here, as I don’t believe either starter will throw deep into this game. The A’s pen has found some success in recent games, posting a 3.77 xFIP over the last 30 days. This is roughly average. On the other side, Minnesota boasts a 3.26 xFIP over that span. They rank fourth on the slate in that category.
Essentially, I’m banking on regression for a young starter while backing the better offense and bullpen. The Twins are also playing on the road, so the game can’t end with one final Minnesota run.
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