Biggie's PrizePicks Props Plays 5/20/22
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The main play last night, (Bam under 24.5 PRA), had cashed for us and was posted in the premium prop channel which you can access by CLICKING HERE (use code: BIGGIE for 10% off). The WNBA power play also cashed which was cooked up by our other prop expert Eric, (winning screenshot posted below). Tonight we have game two of the Warriors Mavericks Western Conference Finals and I have a couple of early leans for you guys, keep reading to cash tonight!
Brunson has gone over this number in 4 of the last 5 games and he is averaging 19 points in that span of time. I expect the Mavericks to bounce back after a game one blowout and play a much better. That includes Brunson playing more aggressively and shooting more. Luka was covered pretty well in game one, and if that's the case again, then Brunson will need to step up as the team's second-leading scorer. Brunson’s line has been at 18.5 and 19.5 throughout the majority of the playoffs and after just one bad game finishing with 14, PrizePicks drops his line down to 17.5. I’m taking advantage of this drop and going to bank on Brunson and the Mavs bouncing back for a much better game two.
The books have Brunson listed at 18.5 with -125 odds leaning on the over, he’s even listed at 19.5 on one site. PrizePicks has him down to 17.5 which is a one-point margin with odds for him to go over. I’m playing the margin here and trusting that he has a better shooting performance.
Bullock had taken 10 three-pointers last game only hitting three which still covered the over. Someone like Bullock, who is a 3 and D type of player, is always hanging around the perimeter to snipe threes, it is almost disrespectful to have a 3pt specialist listed this low. I would say this is a safe play to AT LEAST push with great upside to go over.
The books have him listed at -145 on the under of 2.5 threes, however, PrizePicks has him listed at 2 so it is safe to say that he will most likely push if he doesn’t go over. I would pair this with two other plays in the case that he pushes so you still gain solid profit.
While Curry has only gone over this number in two of the last five games, he has been getting good looks and taking many threes and I expect them to fall this game. As long as this game doesn't blow out like game one, Curry should see around 38 minutes. In 38 minutes Curry averages 12 3-point attempts, (0.32 attempts per minute), meaning if he takes his average amount of attempts in 38 minutes (12 attempts), all he needs to do is make 4 to cover this over. I think this game will stay close being that it is unlikely for a team to blow out their opponent twice in a row this deep in the playoffs, and if it is a close game, then the best shooter of all time should have no problem cashing this for us.
The books all have Curry listed at 3.5 3pt but with great odds at -145 leaning on the over. I am playing the odds on this and hoping for a close game to give Curry the usage he needs to cover this.
Luka Doncic 1h OVER 24.5 PRA