Dane Dunning vs Los Angeles Angels: MLB Player Prop Prediction (5/24)

We’re coming off of an extremely easy win with Zack Wheeler over 6.5 strikeouts in our last bet. We’re going to continue attacking a strikeout prop here that I feel is in a similar position. I don’t fully understand why it’s so low, but I’m willing to take my shot at it. Overall, we’ve caught fire in recent days, as we’ve hit 7 of our last 9 bets. I’m still only betting in half units at the moment, but I’m likely going to increase that in the coming weeks. In this article, you’ll find my favorite bet for Dane Dunning vs the Los Angeles Angels. 

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Dane Dunning vs Los Angeles Angels

Dane Dunning over 4.5 strikeouts (-110) vs Los Angeles Angels

Dunning isn’t a perfect pitcher in the MLB by any stretch but these odds make no sense. First, he’s throwing extremely well this season. Dunning owns a 1-2 record with a 3.92 ERA through 8 starts. More importantly, he boasts a 3.29 xFIP, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky at this point. 

Dunning also enters this game with an 8.9 K/9 through 43.2 innings. He boasts 23.5% strikeout, 9.7% swinging-strike, and 29.7% CSW rates. Although those numbers aren’t necessarily elite, he’s throwing his slider and change-up over 50% of the time, and he’s capable of putting batters away with two strikes. 

The key here is the matchup. The Los Angeles Angels feature one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB, but there are also plenty of strikeouts to be had throughout their lineup. They’re striking out at the seventh-highest rate (24.3%) in the MLB over the last 14 days. Los Angeles also strikes out at the sixth-highest rate (24.6%) in the league against right-handed pitching. 

Dunning’s already faced off against them twice this season. He posted 6 strikeouts in 6 innings in his last start and 7 strikeouts over 3.2 innings in their first matchup. The other key to this is that he recorded 3.30 and 1.68 xFIPs in those games, suggesting that his success against the Angels wasn’t a fluke. 

Granted, Dunning is a significantly better strikeout option at home, I’m not overly concerned with him traveling for this matchup. He should enter the game with confidence, and be able to find success throughout. 

Furthermore, the young pitcher’s recorded 5+ strikeouts in each of his last 5 starts, and I’m expecting him to continue that streak tonight. 

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