Ranger Suarez vs Atlanta Braves: MLB Player Prop Prediction (5/25)
We’ve all heard the saying “if it isn’t broken, don’t fix it,” right? Well, that’s what’s happening at the moment with this article. We’ve hit 8 of our last 10 bets, including each of our last two MLB bets. Last night, Dane Dunning hit the over in the first few innings, similar to Zack Wheeler with our bet before. We’re continuing to take mispriced starting pitchers at the moment, and that’s what I’m doing once again. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet for Ranger Suarez vs the Atlanta Braves.
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Suarez has been one of the more frustrating pitchers in the MLB, and that’s the exact reason we’re getting this number today. He’s posted a 4-2 record with a 4.12 ERA through 8 starts. His ERA is backed by a 4.02 xFIP, which shows his struggles overall.
Suarez also enters this game with a 7.6 K/9 through 39.1 innings. He hasn’t been a dominant strikeout option, posting 19% strikeout, 8.2% swinging-strike, and 26.2% CSW rates. His contact rate is also up drastically, which is shown in his swinging-strike rate.
With that being said, Suarez is starting to throw at a higher level in recent games. He’s recorded 1.79, 3.44, and 2.99 xFIPs in his last 3 starts, which included the Los Angeles Dodgers twice and Seattle Mariners. He’s also recorded 5+ strikeouts in each of those games, posting an 11% swinging-strike rate or better in 2 of those 3 starts.
This matchup is the best, and arguably the worst, part of this play as well. First, the Atlanta Braves have struggled with strikeouts in recent games. They lead the MLB with a ridiculous 28.8% strikeout rate over the last 14 days.
The Braves are striking out at the second-highest rate (27.7%) in the league against left-handed pitching as well. One of the biggest concerns is that Atlanta also ranks ninth in the MLB in OPS (.728) against lefties.
Another key is that Suarez doesn’t have massive splits against right- and left-handed batters in terms of strikeout rate. His strikeout rate against lefties sits 4.9% higher this season. It was drastically different last season, though, which is a massive concern, as Atlanta is expected to utilize eight right-handed batters tonight.
Overall, this total is set at a bit low with the plus odds. Suarez comes with plenty of strikeout potential, specifically in this matchup, and he can easily grab 5 strikeouts tonight.
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