Kyle Wright vs Philadelphia Phillies: MLB Player Prop Prediction (5/26)
Whew. Last night was disappointing. We bet Ranger Suarez over 4.5 strikeouts at +106 odds early in the day. He ended around -140 (last I checked, it may have ended higher). The closing line value didn’t matter, though, as Suarez was pulled from the game with 4 strikeouts. He even struck out the side in one inning. It was a tough loss, but it was a bet that I’d make again. Closing line value is what we’re here for, though. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet involving Kyle Wright vs the Philadelphia Phillies.
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For whatever reason, Wright’s still being disrespected as a pitcher. He’s pitching behind his curveball, which has completely changed the way he’s throwing in games. He was a top-5 overall pick in the MLB Draft, and he’s still only 26 years old.
He’s throwing at an elite level, posting a 4-2 record with a 2.49 ERA through 8 starts. His ERA is backed by an outstanding 2.96 xFIP, which is significantly higher than he’s even recorded at the MLB level.
The key for this bet is that Wright enters this game with a 10.7 K/9 through 47 innings. He’s recorded 29.5% strikeout, 12.5% swinging-strike, and 31.6% CSW rates. His increased success looks fully sustainable with his new pitch mix.
He’s recorded 6+ strikeouts in 6 of his 8 starts. His only struggles came against the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, who are two teams that don’t strike out at a high rate against right-handed pitching. He also struggled a bit in those games.
Tonight, Wright gets a great matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. They’re striking out at the eighth-highest rate (24.2%) in the MLB over the last 14 days. Philadelphia is also striking out at the 12th-highest rate (23.4%) in the league against right-handed pitching.
We’re in a weird situation where Wright still isn’t seen as dominant, and truthfully, we could see his fall from grace at some point this season. With that being said, all of his advanced metrics look outstanding, suggesting he isn’t getting unlucky.
I’m surprised we’re getting plus odds on this number, and I’d expect it to close closer to the game tonight.
Bet 0.5 units on Kyle Wright over 5.5 strikeouts (+112) to win 0.56 units on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to $1,000 sign up bonus
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