San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins: MLB Betting Prediction (6/2)
We got back to our winning ways with the New York Mets runline on Tuesday. They won the game 10-0 without us having to sweat at all. The Mets actually scored 2 runs in the first inning, covering the run line from their first set of at-bats until the game ended. It’s always great to have sweat-free wins in betting, and we’ve now won 9 of our last 13 bets. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet for the San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins game.
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For obvious reasons, this bet starts with the starting pitcher. Alex Wood and Sandy Alcantara have both found plenty of success throughout the season. It’s important to note that this game will be played in one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB as well.
Wood’s struggled on face value through 9 starts, posting a 4.81 ERA thus far. He’s due for positive regression, though, as he boasts a tremendous 3.12 xFIP through 43 innings. Wood also boasts a 2.83 xFIP on the road in 2022.
The key for Wood is the matchup, though. Miami owns a league-low .608 team OPS against left-handed pitching this season. They’ve struggled with power and consistency against lefties, and they also strike out at the highest rate in the MLB against that handedness.
I’m expecting Wood to find plenty of success early in this game, and he owns plenty of different ways to get out of trouble because of Miami’s strikeout rate.
San Francisco’s performed well against right-handed pitching this season. They rank sixth in the MLB in team OPS (.726) this season. The Giants also rank 10th in the league in team wOBA (.331) over the last 14 days.
With that being said, this is a bet on Alcantara. He boasts a 2.00 ERA through 10 starts. He’s due for some regression, as he owns a 3.67 xFIP, although that’s still a solid xFIP. Alcantara’s allowed only 3 earned runs over his last 32 innings, and he allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in each of those 4 starts.
We’re backing two high-end pitchers in this bet. They’ll benefit from the stadium they’re throwing in. Although one offense is solid, I’m trusting Alcantara against San Francisco. I am more concerned about the risks of Wood, but the matchup against Miami is too good to pass up tonight.
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