Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds: MLB Betting Prediction (6/8)

We’re coming off of another easy win with the Baltimore Orioles F5 moneyline last night. Regression his Keegan Thompson the way we expected last night, and the Orioles easily took an early lead in the game. They didn’t give up the lead once they got it, as Kyle Bradish finally had a solid performance. We’ve been hitting our bets for quite some time, and it’s time to start betting full units. This is the first time I’m making the change this season, and it’s a little shocking because this play has some juice. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet for the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds game. 

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds Team Total o4.5 runs (-128)

I generally don’t make bets this juiced but this seems like a situation where this market simply hasn’t caught up to the bet. The Cincinnati Reds are arguably the best home offense in the MLB. They’re averaging a league-high 6.26 runs per game at home this season. They sit 0.45 runs higher than the Colorado Rockies in this category. 

As if that isn’t enough, the Reds lead the MLB in OPS (.814) and slugging percentage (.459) at home this season. They also rank second in batting average (.273) and third in ISO (.187). Cincinnati’s struggling at times against right-handed pitching in 2022, but that hasn’t been the case when they’re playing at home. 

Ultimately, this bet is 100% about the Reds playing in a great matchup in Cincinnati tonight. 

They’ll face off against Merrill Kelly, who’s seen mixed results this season. He’s been terrible on the road, though, posting a 5.04 ERA over 25 innings. His struggles are backed by a 5.74 xFIP, suggesting he could get slightly worse. Kelly hasn’t been able to get strikeouts on the road, and that resulted in plenty of issues early this season. 

His recent road starts have been terrible, even when he performs at a decent level on face value. Kelly’s biggest struggles came against the Los Angeles Dodgers when he allowed 8 earned runs over only 2 innings. Since then, he’s given up 6 runs (5 earned runs) over 10 road innings against the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates. With that being said, Kelly’s posted 6.17, 7.58, and 10.01 xFIPs in his last 3 road starts. 

The weather isn’t necessarily ideal for hitting, but it also won’t hurt the batters. We have arguably the best home offense in the MLB against a pitcher that struggles on the road tonight. It’s also important to note that the Reds have scored 5+ runs in 5 of their last 6 games, including 7 and 14 runs in this series. 

Bet 1.28 units on Cincinnati Reds team total over 4.5 runs (-128) to win 1 unit on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to $1,000 risk free bet