Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels: MLB Betting Prediction (6/9)
We’re coming off of a loss with the Cincinnati Reds team total last night. They were shut out after a long rain delay by a terrible pitching staff. It’s fitting that it was our first full unit bet and we ultimately lose it. It’s also fitting that the Reds have already scored 2 runs with runners on second and third and no outs in the first inning today. Apparently, just one day early, right? We’re shifting out west for tonight’s game. In this article, you’ll find my favorite bet for the Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels game.
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This is somewhat of an odd situation. I’m attacking one elite starting pitcher against a great offense. On the other side, I’m attacking the exact opposite - a decent starter against a struggling offense.
Shohei Ohtani enters this game with a surprising 3.99 ERA through 9 starts. With that being said, he boasts an elite 2.70 xFIP, suggesting he’s throwing significantly better than his ERA displays. He also owns a .321 BABIP, and it’s only a matter of time before Ohtani starts to see positive regression.
He isn’t a player that has massive home/road splits, but he’s at his best against right-handed batters. This is important for the matchup against the Boston Red Sox. Although they only use 5 right-handed batters throughout their lineup, that group includes Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, and Trevor Story.
Boston’s been one of the best offenses in the MLB in recent weeks. They rank fourth in the MLB in team wOBA (.352) over the last 14 days. They’ve also displayed tremendous power over that span. The Red Sox also rank eighth in the MLB in OPS (.725) against right-handed pitching this season.
It’s clear they feature one of the better offenses in the MLB, but I’ve always backed elite pitching over elite hitting. That’s the situation once again tonight.
Nick Pivetta’s looked good this season, posting a 3.50 ERA through 61.2 innings this season. He also owns a 4.00 xFIP, suggesting he’ll see some regression as the season continues. Overall, a 4.00 xFIP isn’t something I’d completely shy away from in the right matchup.
Although Pivetta isn’t a dominant arm, he gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Angels. They’ve been one of the coldest offenses in the MLB, ranking 28th in team wOBA (.270) over the last 14 days. Overall, they’ve been an average offense against right-handed pitching. Still, I’m willing to attack this cold streak over their success against righties, as the majority of that came early in the season when they were arguably the best team in the league.
As I said above, this comes down to Ohtani stopping a great offense and Pivetta slowing down a bad offense. Both of these bullpens are serviceable, and I’m looking at the full game here.
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