Spencer Strider vs Pittsburgh Pirates: MLB Player Prop Prediction (6/10)
We got back on track with the Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels under last night. The game was scoreless until the fifth inning. Ultimately, the game ended with 7 runs, hitting the under by exactly 1 run. Granted, we would’ve had the ability to push at 8 runs, but it feels great to get a win. We’ve shifted our units up to one full unit per bet, but we’re shifting that down for this high-risk play. We’re moving to only a quarter of a unit for this bet because the odds are so steep. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet involving Spencer Strider vs the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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Are we taking a massive risk on this bet? Sure. If you want, you can drop the total down (along with the odds) and play something safer. I’m looking for a massive win with this bet, though, and I fully feel Strider has the ability to hit this.
First, Strider’s an elite strikeout option. He owns a ridiculous 13.5 K/9 through 13 games (2 starts). Overall, he boasts 36.8% strikeout, 15.2% swinging-strike, and 30.9% CSW rates through 32.2 innings this season. Strider’s strikeout rate also jumps to 41.1% at home, where his xFIP also dips to 2.32.
He’s only started a pair of games this season, though. He posted 7 strikeouts over 4.1 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. His only other start occurred in Colorado, where he posted 5 strikeouts over 4 innings against the Colorado Rockies.
This is purely a matchup play, though. Strider will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. They’re striking out at a league-high 27.3% over the last 14 days. Pittsburgh also strikes out at the fifth-highest rate in the MLB against right-handed pitching this season.
They’ve given up 7 strikeouts 5 of the last 8 right-handed starting pitchers as well. Of that group, Alex Faedo, Mitch White, and Ryan Feltner all posted 7 strikeouts over 5 innings. Earlier in the season, Hunter Greene posted 9 strikeouts against them. Simply put, there are plenty of strikeouts available throughout the Pittsburgh offense.
Strider is a wild pitcher, and that will work both in his favor and against him in this matchup. Pittsburgh doesn’t chase at a high rate, which is concerning. With that being said, they boast the fourth-lowest chase contact percentage (54.3%) in the MLB.
The obvious concern is that Strider won’t throw deep enough into this game to hit 10 strikeouts. He got to 87 pitches in his last game, though, and he could come closer to 100 tonight.
Strider needs a near-perfect game to hit 10 strikeouts tonight, which is why we’re getting +750 odds here as well.
Bet 0.25 units on Spencer Strider 10+ strikeouts (+750) to win 1.88 units on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive a $1,000 risk free bet