Zac Gallen vs Cincinnati Reds: MLB Player Props Prediction (6/15)
We’re coming off of another great win with the Detroit Tigers team total under 3 runs. It looked questionable early in the game with the bases loaded and Javier Baez sitting on a 3-1 count. Ultimately, the Tigers scored 1 run in the first inning, but they weren’t able to score for the rest of the game. After that small issue early in the game, it was smooth sailing for the Chicago White Sox. Overall, we’re 17-8 in our last 25 bets, finding quite a bit of success at this point in the season. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet involving Zac Gallen vs the Cincinnati Reds.
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Gallen’s seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts throughout the season. He enters this game with an 8.5 K/9 through 11 starts. Overall, he boasts 23% strikeout, 9.4% swinging-strike, and 25.8% CSW rates through 58 innings. It isn’t out of the question that Gallen could see some positive strikeout regression as he throws more innings, but I wouldn’t be shocked if his current rates hold true.
Gallen’s strikeouts have specifically dipped in recent games, as he’s posted 6+ strikeouts in only 1 of his last 5 starts. Prior to that, he posted 9 and 7 strikeouts against the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies.
A key for today is that Gallen is throwing at home, where he owns a 28.9% strikeout rate. He also boasts a 3.58 xFIP in Arizona this season. The matchup is another massive reason Gallen throwing in Arizona is a key.
He’ll face off against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. They boast ridiculous home and road splits. The Reds rank ninth in the MLB in OPS (.763) at home against right-handed pitching. Cincinnati ranks only 26th in the league in OPS (.615) on the road against righties, though. This should allow Gallen to throw deeper into the game, giving him more opportunities for strikeouts.
The Reds are in an interesting spot here. They haven’t been striking out recently, posting a 19.1% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. This ranks 26th in the MLB over that span. With that being said, Cincinnati strikes out at the 10th-highest rate (23.2%) in the MLB against right-handed pitching.
When we break down the splits, 3 of the last 4 right-handed starting pitchers have recorded 7 strikeouts against Cincinnati when the Reds are on the road. Those pitchers weren’t dominant strikeout options, as the list includes Zach Davies, Merrill Kelly, and Adam Wainwright.
This bet certainly isn’t a given, but it’s impossible to pass up at these odds.
Bet 1 unit on Zac Gallen over 5.5 strikeouts (+115) to win 1.15 units on PointsBet Sportsbook - Click the link to receive 2 risk free bets up to $2,000