2022 NFL Futures | Why I'm Betting Trey Lance MVP

It feels like the spectacle of the NFL grows each year, and it's poised for its biggest season yet in 2022. The AFC is absolutely loaded with a young Quarterback group unlike anything we've ever seen -- while the NFC holds the reigning Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams and the best Quarterback of all-time...Tom Brady. I typically don't find value in tying up my money for six months with a chance at a 2 or 3-1 payout. When I bet player awards, I swing for the fences and I'm going to highlight one of my favorite futures bets for the 2022 season. These odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. Let's dive in...

Trey Lance +5000 to win MVP

This one might come as a shock to some people, with Lance being maybe the most inexperienced Quarterback in the entire NFL. He played really just 17 games in his college career at North Dakota State, and that included only one game in his final season there. He sat behind Jimmy Garoppolo in his rookie season in San Francisco, and logged signifcant time in just three games. It's been apparent all off-season that the 49ers would be transitioning from Garoppolo to Lance for the upcoming season, but that was made official on Tuesday. Anyone that follows me knows I was very heavy on San Francisco futures last season, and they fell just short of the Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan is a tremendous offensive schemer, but when it comes to ballsy decisions...yikes. His choosing to punt on 4th and 2 from the Rams 45 yard-line while leading in the fourth quarter haunts me to this day. Let's not even bring up that Jaquiski Tartt dropped interception following that punt decison. Anyways, the point of my rambling is that this team was one play away from beating the Rams and potentially winning the Super Bowl a year ago...with a worse Quarterback at the helm. Garoppolo is a solid real-life Quarterback, but he fits the mold of someone you can win with BUT won't go out and win you the game. In three playoff games during their 2021 run to the NFC Championhsip game, he completed 58% of his passes with a 2-3 TD/INT ratio. You're going to honestly try and convince me that Trey Lance couldn't of at least done that in those three games? While also adding elite playmaking with his legs...case and point. 

One thing is certain, and that's that a Quarterback will be winning the 2022 NFL MVP award. This season will mark a decade since a non-QB has taken home the award with the last time being Adrian Peterson in 2012. Last year, Cooper Kupp shattered receiving records and nearly went for 2,000 yards...and really wasn't even in the conversation. It's nearly impossible for a non-QB to sniff this award these days, so if you're wagering money on it you can comfortably eliminate anyone that's not a QB. 

A big factor in handing out the award is overall team success. The team simply has to be good for the QB to be in contention before we even begin to dive into his actual play on the field. I've pointed out that this 49ers team was a play away from the Super Bowl, so yes I think they are going to be a very good team this season. Keeping Deebo Samuel on the roster was a big win for their offense -- and Russell Wilson exiting the division was a big win for their team as a whole. The AFC has legitimately 8-10 teams that I think can make a Super Bowl run this season..the NFC not so much. Outside of the clear chalk picks in the Rams and the Buccaneers, it's wide open. That is exactly why I'm so high on the 49ers and Eagles this upcoming season. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that the 49ers win the NFC West and are in contention for a top playoff seed. 

I noted above that Kyle Shanahan is an elite offensive schemer, and I don't think anyone can really argue that at this point. The 2021 49ers offense lead the NFL in yards per play, with Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarterback. Garoppolo himself ranked second-overall in yards per pass attempt and was a legitimate top-three QB if you look at EPA (per Sharp Football Analysis). Lance has caught a lot of flack for his performance in his few starts last season, but the EPA shows he was a well above-average QB in those starts. He also put up 8.5 Y/A, which was the same number as Garoppolo and would of ranked second in football behind only Joe Burrow. He threw for a 5-2 TD/INT ratio and added 38 rushing attempts. If Trey Lance was putting up these numbers in spot starts after playing in one game since 2020...what on earth is he capable of doing with Kyle Shanahan having an entire off-season to build and scheme an offense around him? I'm not sure if we can truly quantify how high his upside is this season. Trey Lance may very well set the NFL on fire in 2022, and if he does, I'm going to be along for the ride. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)