2022 NFL Futures | Why Lamar Jackson is the Best Bet for MVP

We have entered the month of August and the NFL 2022 season is on the horizon. It is that time to bring you some of our favorite season-long prop bets. Today we take a look at the market for MVP and make our choice for the best bet on the slate.

The odds expressed on the slate are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Please be aware that lines may shift depending on when you read this article or what sportsbook you use.

Why the play MUST be a QB

The NFL is a team sport, but the NFL is a QB league first and foremost. When you look at DraftKings Sportsbook, you will see the top 20 favorites for the NFL MVP--18 of them play the QB position. (Derrick Henry at +5000 and Jonathan Taylor at +5000 are the outliers.)

Over the last 15 years, the only non-QB to win the NFL MVP award was Adrian Peterson in 2021. We don't typically bet on outliers, so we have narrowed our candidates down to quarterbacks only.

Deciphering what QB candidates make the cut

If you look over the last 15 years, the quarterbacks who won the NFL MVP award did so based on AT LEAST one of two criteria: 

A) A mind-blowing statistical season 
B) They led their team to one of, if not the best record in their conference

Based upon that understanding, what quarterbacks can we eliminate?

Dak Prescott +1600
Jalen Hurts +2000
Derek Carr +2800
Matt Ryan +3500
Deshaun Watson +4000
Trey Lance +4000
Kirk Cousins +5000
Tua Tagovailoa +5000

While the quarterbacks listed above each have qualities to like, it is difficult to envision any of them putting together an obscene statistical season OR leading their team to the best record in their respective conference.

We have now narrowed our search to 10 potential candidates:

Josh Allen +700
Tom Brady +800
Patrick Mahomes +900
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Justin Herbert +1000
Joe Burrow +1200
Russell Wilson +1400
Matthew Stafford +1500
Kyler Murray +2000
Lamar Jackson +2000

Who ultimately is the best bet for MVP?

Why Lamar Jackson is the best bet for MVP

For starters, we have seen a Lamar Jackson MVP season before. In 2019, Lamar Jackson threw for 3,100 yards and ran for 1,200 yards totaling 43 total touchdowns. 

Lamar Jackson is the ultimate dual threat at the QB position--there is not another player in the league that threatens a defense with his legs the way Lamar Jackson does.

Last season the Baltimore Ravens were derailed by injuries. Injuries across the offensive line, their top two running backs, and crucial players on the defensive side of the ball. Injuries eventually caught Lamar Jackson, playing only 12 games a season ago.

Mark Andrews is an All-World TE and the alpha of the Raven's passing games. Rashod Bateman looks like a true #1 receiver, and his chemistry with Lamar Jackson is apparent. 

I love the draft that the Ravens just put together. The Ravens drafted one of the best center prospects in recent memory, Tyler Linderbaum, to an already strong offensive line. The Ravens are back to their roots with a strong running game, and by drafting multiple tight ends in Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely, the Ravens are again playing to the strengths of Lamar Jackson.

Consider that Lamar Jackson is betting on himself before signing a long-term deal, and you have an additional narrative to support Lamar Jackson's MVP case. At +2000, Lamar Jackson is the best bet for MVP.