2022 NFL Futures - Falcons May Have the Worst Roster in the NFL

Welcome back to another edition of Win Totals with Dave Costabile.

Today we're going to deep dive into the Atlanta Falcons and why I think they have one of the worst rosters in the NFL.  

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Atlanta Falcons UNDER 5 wins (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Another under!?!  Yes, another under.  Open your minds and sportsbooks as I break down why the Falcons won't win five games in 2022.

Betting any under sends shivers down most gamblers’ spines.  Betting an under of just five games only intensifies that feeling.  Betting a line with -150 odds is usually not even contemplated. 

What isn't considered enough is sometimes -150 is your friend.  Vegas is trying to discourage you from laying that juice down.  But we're not going to fall for it with the Falcons.

Let's start by looking back at last season.

2021 Recap

I want to start with head coach Arthur Smith. 

Smith was a hot candidate during the summer of 2021.  He was previously the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans who were led by NFL Offensive Player of the Year Derrick Henry and his 2,027 rushing yards.  QB Ryan Tannehill saw his career reinvigorated by Smith's scheme as well winning Comeback Player of the Year honors after the 2019 season before seeing career highs in TDs (40 total - 7 on the ground) in 2020.  Once their season came to an abrupt halt in the Wild Card round vs a seasoned Baltimore Ravens team, the Falcons swooped in (see what I did there?) and snagged Smith to be their 18th coach in franchise history.

In his first season with Atlanta, they finished 7-10, but there is no more deceiving record than this one.  The Falcons were 7-2 in one score games in 2021.  For the people in the back, that means EVERY win they scratched across was by the skin of their collective teeth. 

I'm more interested in the losses. 

The Falcons posted an embarrassing -146 in point differential which was good (or I should say bad) for 5th worst in the league.  What I'm trying to say is Atlanta got blown out... a lot.  Of their 10 losses, eight of them were by 10 points or more, and four were by 23 or more.  They were a team that would pack it in when things got away from them early.  That's the kind of team I want for a win total under future.

Let me drown you in some team stats for a minute here.

Falcons Offense

• 29th in Total Yards
• 31st in Rush Yards
• 26th in Points Per Game

Falcons Defense

• 26th in Total Yards
• 27th in Rush Yards
• 29th in Points Allowed

Friendly reminder people, there are only 32 teams in the NFL.  These rankings are putrid, and I truly don't see how this changes much with what they've done this offseason.

2022 Outlook

For the first time 15 years, Matt Ryan is NOT the Falcons QB. 

He was traded to the Indianapolis Colts back on March 21st for a 2022 3rd round pick.  The Falcons without Matty Ice and Julio Jones (jettisoned last offseason after becoming franchise leader in both yards and receptions) is just strange but that's the business. 

In comes QB Marcus Mariota.  Mariota is familiar with Coach Smith during their time in Tennessee and this is his last chance to grab ahold of a starting job.  Standing (im)patiently behind him is rookie QB Desmond Ritter who I personally don't think we'll see until things get out of hand for Atlanta record wise.  Which they will.

The backfield is a mix of young and old.  31-year-old and lifetime playmaker, Cordarrelle Patterson is in line to start.  Intriguing rookie from BYU Tyler Allgeier and former Chief Damien Williams will back him up.

The weapons on the outside will be led by 2022 8th overall pick WR Drake London from USC, former Raider Bryan Edwards, and slot WR Olamide Zaccheaus who I'm sure you streamed once or twice in fantasy leagues last year crossing your fingers this was the week he'd find the end zone.  TE Kyle Pitts has true superstar potential and should provide some important spacing in the intermediate areas.  This unit is at best, compelling but unproven.

The offensive line was one of the worst in the league last year even though they escaped major injury, and the front office barely did anything to improve that unit this offseason.  Sure, Mariota's athleticism may help disguise this glaring hole at times but in the long run it will be an obvious issue again.

The NFC South seems top heavy, but the Falcons have a top 10 toughest schedule in 2022 and are favored in, let me count it up...carry the two... ZERO games at this moment.  

For these and so many other reasons, the Falcons don't scare me one bit heading into this new season.

Click that UNDER next to the number 5 in your sportsbooks and don't look back.

Written by David Costabile

Twitter: @davecostabile