2022 College Football Futures / MWC

Welcome to the beginning of the college football conference preview. Ryan Bowles and I will preview every conference and share our season predictions and winners. Today let's break down the Mountain West Conference and I’ll tell you what I see that can make you some money. 

 

A quick reminder for our readers: these odds are on DraftKings Sportsbook. The lines from DraftKings may vary depending on when you read these articles.

Check where to bet to find other options for sportsbooks in your state.

Mountain Division:

 

Boise State Broncos (9 Wins): Over

These Boise State Broncos are in need of a bounce-back season, after finishing the 2021 campaign at 7-5. The Broncos will be defensive-heavy as they finished first in the Mountain West last year with the least amount of points given up. This year's schedule poses a challenge with traveling to Oregon State, facing BYU, and going to Air Force. I like the Broncos to upset the Beavers in week 1 helping them gain momentum to win the Mountain Division. I can’t see Air Force losing more than 3 games making the over 9 at even money very enticing. 

Key Games: At Oregon State, vs BYU, At Air Force, vs Utah State

Air Force Falcons (8.5 Wins): Over

The Air Force Falcons are coming off a historic season. They finished 2021 10-3 with an upset bowl win over the Louisville Cardinals. One thing is for sure when it comes to Falcon football, the games go incredibly fast. The Falcons have a favorable non-conference schedule against the academies, Colorado, and FCS Northern Iowa. Over 8.5 wins is a steal as I see the Falcons only falling to Boise State, Utah State, and maybe San Diego State. At only -125 Over 8.5 wins is a great bet as I see the Falcons giving Boise State all they can handle in the conference. 

Key Games: At Utah State, vs Boise State, vs Army, at San Diego State

Utah State Aggies (7 Wins): Over 

The Aggies had a fantastic 2021 season winning the Mountain West title game, and beating Oregon State in the LA Bowl. Despite all their success last season they experience a lot of turnover in 2022. The schedule does give the Aggies a lot of favors and they will need to rely heavily on quarterback Logan Bonner. I like the Aggies to finish just behind Boise State and Air Force because of the veteran leadership returning. The Aggie's win total is set at seven providing great value at plus money. Analyzing their schedule if they beat everyone they are supposed to that gets them to 8 wins alone. Now throw in the possibility of beating the Air Force at home, over 7 wins has to be sprinkled in Utah’s State future.  

Key games: At Alabama, At BYU, vs Air Force, and at Boise State

Wyoming Cowboys (5 Wins): Push/Under

The Wyoming Cowboys did not lose a game out of the conference in 2021. The only problem with that stat was they went just 2-6 in the conference. If Wyoming wants to compete near the top of the Mountain Divison they have to beat teams within the conference. The good news for the Cowboys is that they play the three teams listed above all at home. On the flip side they play the teams listed below all on the road. I think the Cowboys will not be going bowling this year and will struggle to put up points. Unlike last year I see them losing out of conference to Illinois and BYU. If I had to make a pick on the win total I would go under, but I will stay neutral and say they push at 5 wins exactly. 

Key Games: vs Utah State, At BYU, vs Air Force, vs Boise State

Colorado State Rams  (6 Wins): Under

The Colorado State rams had a dumpster fire 2021 season. They finished 3-9 with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt. If you lose to the Jackrabbits and Commodores in back-to-back weeks, I will be betting your under until proven otherwise. The Rams also welcome former Nevada head coach James Norvell III. Norvell did incredible things with the Wolfpack program but it will take time for him to fix things in Fort Collins. The main reason I love the under 6 wins is that they have at least 6 guaranteed losses on their schedule. Also with so much turnover and recent struggles the under has to be the play. 

Key Games: At Michigan, At Nevada, vs Utah State, at Boise State

New Mexico Lobos (2.5 Wins:) Over

If you like and respect good football please look away. The Lobos are absolutely awful and had a miserable 2021 finishing 3-9. The bright side is I think they will be improved in 2022. The schedule provides an opportunity for the Lobos to reach or exceed last years win total. At -135 it is not a win total I will be betting, but if I had a choice I do see them getting to 3 wins. 

Key Games: Vs Boise State, At LSU, At New Mexico State, vs Wyoming

 

West Divison:

San Diego State Aztecs (7.5 Wins): Over

The San Diego State Aztecs continue to build a powerhouse in Mid-Major football. Last year was no exception with an appearance in the Mountain West Championship Game and a 12-2 season. The Aztecs have the best defensive unit in the conference but they lose all-star punter Matt Ariza to the NFL. The slate this year provides the Aztecs with several challenges away from home with matchups with Utah, Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada. I do like their Over 7.5 win total because of how consistent their defense is and they will be favored in at least 9 of their matchups. The Aztecs are good enough to beat anyone but bad enough to lose to anybody. I think they continue their ride through the Mountain West and reach the conference Title game yet again and get over that 7.5 win total. 

Key Games: At Utah, At Boise State, At Fresno State, vs Air Force

Fresno State Bulldogs (8.5 Wins): Under

The Fresno State Bulldogs are extremely fun to watch. They scored the 2nd most points in the conference last season and won ten games for the first time since 2018. They will challenge the Aztecs for the west division but their defense will be the downfall. I don’t love the UN 8.5 pick but it provides better value than -160 for the over. Looking at the Bulldog's schedule they face hard challenges against Oregon State, USC, Boise State, and San Diego State. Those four games alone could result in four losses. Time will tell but because of how poor the defense is I think they only reach eight games and miss out on the conference title. 

Key Games: vs Oregon State, At USC, At Boise State, vs San Diego State

San Jose State Spartans (6.5 Wins): Over

The San Jose State Spartans continue to trend up in the Mountain West power index. The Spartans only won 5 games a year ago but have a majority of their roster production returning in 2022. With other Mountain West teams likely taking a step back the Spartans have a great opportunity to make a bowl game and compete towards the top of the conference. Over 6.5 wins at plus money is great value for a team that is well coached. Games against Portland State, UNLV, and Hawaii will help them reach seven wins. 

Key Games: At Auburn, At Fresno State, At San Diego State, At Utah State

Hawaii Warriors (4 Wins): Over

My Picks 4th and OV 4 Wins

Throw Hawaii, Nevada, and UNLV in a blender and that’s how you settle the bottom half of this conference. Hawaii has consistently given opponents trouble at home, with the distance teams travel to go play Hawaii. For that reason, I think it gives the Warriors an advantage for winning the games against Nevada and UNLV, both at home. If they are fortunate enough to win those they will reach the over four win total. Getting it at even money is a steal and there is always a chance they upset Vanderbilt in Week 0. Hawaii is beautiful and so is betting on them at 1AM every Saturday in the fall!

Key Games: vs Vanderbilt, At Michigan, At San Diego State, At Fresno State

Nevada Wolfpack  (4.5 Wins): Under 

Nevada had a fantastic 2021 campaign and the top offense in the conference. That is no longer the case in 2021 as they lose most of their offensive production and have a brand new head coach. The Wolfpack are in total rebuild mode and because of that, I expect them to struggle throughout the year. The non-conference schedule reflects how poor this year's squad is. Even if they pull three wins out of the conference don’t expect them to win more than one game in the Mountain West. Sorry Nevada you will have to be patient, your time will come again.

Key Games: At Iowa, At Air Force, vs San Diego State, vs Boise State

UNLV Rebels (4.5 Wins): Under

UNLV has two things going for them. First, they play in the nicest stadium in the conference: Allegiant Stadium. Number two when they score touchdowns they pull the slot machine. Now everything else within the football program isn’t very good. The Rebels need to take care of the ball in 2022 because of how poor their defense is. I love this under-win total because other than the Idaho State matchup, I could see them losing every other game. Don’t let the bright lights fool you and bet UNLV’s under-win total for another depressing 2022 season for the Rebels. 

Key Games: At California, At Utah State, At Notre Dame, At San Diego State