2022 NFL Futures | JuJu Smith-Schuster Prop Bet

Welcome to the 2022 NFL season. Each year there are surprises, disappointments and things that go as expected. The month of August is always an interesting month because this is where majority of the season-long props move. These movements occur due to free agent signings, injuries, trades, and training camp reports. There is a lot that goes into these props and choosing good props to bet on can make for a great January of cashing in season-long tickets. That said, I have identified a prop that I love and want to take advantage.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster over 750.5 Receiving Yards

Props in general are scary because a season is a long time that a player has to avoid injury in order to give your bet the best chance. The way I see it, a season gives them more time to come back from the injury and keep fighting for your bet. If you bet a prop for one game, and your player gets hurt in the first quarter. That prop is likely toast and you lose. With season long props, you have games to make up for missed games, so I view it as still having a fighting chance.

I have given you guys enough background. The market seems to be very low on JuJu Smith-Schuster. His prop has recently moved from o/u 1000.5 yards down to 800.5 yards in most places and even 750.5 in some. That is a 20-25 % drop for a receiver that has pro-bowl upside playing with a quarterback that is arguably the most talented in the NFL. I will dive into this play on multiple levels.

Level 1: Tyreek Hill is out of town. He has taken his talents to South Beach and with his talents, goes his 1200+ yards receiving. Those 1239 yards made up for 25% of Patrick Mahomes yards in the 2021 season. With the acquisition of Smith-Schuster, this makes him the best wide-receiver on the team. His other wide-receivers include Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, two receivers that were barely a third option on their teams for the last several years. There is an unproven rookie, Sky Moore that has the talent to play on the other side of the field as Juju, however I cannot imagine him dominating the targets over a such a great route-runner. Smith-Schuster will bring his pro-bowl caliber arsenal and fresh legs to the Chiefs where Mahomes will be looking to bounce back from his least productive season in 4 years.

Level 2: Smith-Schuster was hurt most of 2021. While he was healthy, he was saddled with an old, broken down, washed Ben Roethlisberger, who had been on a production decline for the past three years. In those three years, Big Ben’s yards per attempt where under 6.5 (he had never been below 7.0 in his whole career prior to this). This means shorter throws, leading to less yards, which hampers a receiver’s ability to rack up yards. In my opinion (and probably most people’s) Mahomes is a superior upgrade.

Level 3: This level is dedicated to the sheer math behind the number. 750 yards is just not a lot of yards. It is a very small number of yards for a number one receiver. It is an even smaller number of yards for a number one receiver playing with an elite quarterback. To put it in context, Mecole Hardman, playing behind Kelce and Hill was able to rack up 683 yards. If Juju stays healthy in 2022, he will have to average 45 yards per game to go over this number. Our guy has played 12 or more games in each season prior to 2021. If Juju misses 5 games, he still only has to achieve 62.5 yards per game to go over this number.

Ultimately, I believe that Skyy Moore has led the public to believe that Juju Smith-Schuster will have a sub-par season. I don’t see this to be the case. Tyreek Hill leaving town, coupled with Juju’s talent, combined with Mahomes’ talent gives Juju the opportunity. The math gives him the path to reach the number that we need him to. I am placing my first season-long receiving prop of the year.