NFL Week 1 | Betting with Ben

Welcome into Betting with Ben for Week 1 of the NFL season! I couldn't be more excited that football is back and I'll be bringing you my favorite bet and ATD picks each week of the season. Let's dive in!

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The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

Minnesota Vikings ML +100

I'm very bullish on the Vikings this season, and I think they kick things off with an outright win against the Packers. For starters, I don't like to look too much into past seasons but they did upset the Packers as +1.5 underdogs at home last season. We also have a strong historical trend working in their favor. Over the last 13 years, home underdogs are 19-4 ATS in divisonal games during Week 1 of the season. Kevin O'Connell should elevate this offense beyond what we saw recently with Mike Zimmer calling the shots, and I just don't love this Packers team. I was very keen on fading them late last season in favor of San Francisco and I'm going to be fading a lot of GB again in 2022. To top things off, star LT David Bakhtiari looks 50/50 to play this game. If he misses, that would improve the spot for Minnesota even further. I think the Vikings are going to be a good team, and I don't think they should be getting plus odds at home even if Aaron Rodgers is on the opposing sideline. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorers

Mike Williams +115- I love this spot for BMW and I think he can pass up Keenan Allen as the Chargers clear-cut Alpha WR this season. Williams was heavily involved in the red-zone last season -- seeing 12 targets inside the 10 yard line which was tied with his teammate, Keenan Allen, for fifth-most in football. He has an above-average match-up this week against an undersized CB in Anthony Averett. He should continue to be featured heavily in the red-zone and is one of my favorite targets in Week 1. 

Elijah Mitchell +125- Mitchell is another guy I like a lot this week in a plus match-up against Chicago. San Francisco is going to continue to run the hell out of the football in 2022. They were top-six in both rush attempts and rushing yards as a team a season ago, and that number could rise with Trey Lance now at the helm of the offense. Mitchell was top-five in opportunity share last season, and should be featured as the main back again this season. Chicago is depleted on the defensive line compared to 2021 -- losing both Eddie Goldman and Akiem Hicks. I think this is a strong spot for Mitchell, and he has a strangle-hold on the red zone carries as well. 

Marquise Brown +165- I just don't see how Brown doesn't get loose this week. It's the highest O/U on the slate and the Chiefs have moved all the way to 6 point favorites. Arizona is going to have to lean on Brown to stay in this game, especially with Rondale Moore now looking unlikely to play. Playing with his college QB, I'm betting on Brown this weekend and I do think he can get in the box. 

Cameron Brate +280- I love getting some higher-odds exposure to the primetime games and I don't even think this is that much of a stretch. We all know Rob Gronkowski and OJ Howard are both gone for Tampa Bay this season, clearing the path for Brate to be Brady's go-to Tight End. Brate also had a legitimate red-zone role already last season. For example, he actaully saw more targets inside the 20 yard line than Mike Evans -- 20 to 18. Evans out-targeted him 12 to 9 inside the five yard line, but it's clear they will look to Brate in the red-zone and that should remain the same with Gronk off the field. 

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Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)