CFB Week 3 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 2 Record: 2-2-1 / Overall: 2-2-1

It was a rough start to say the least.

Bama/Texas over 65.5 was dead before I ordered lunch and Texas A&M (-18.5) lost OUTRIGHT to Appalachian State at home likely dashing their playoff hopes.  

However, we bounced back big time the rest of the day finishing on lines provided Wednesday 2-0-1.

Publishing this series to you all 3 days before gameday won't always hurt but it did this week when it comes to Houston (+3).  The Cougars staged a thrilling comeback down 17-3 late to push this game to overtime.  There were three extra sessions total before Texas Tech locked up the home victory by 3.  Now, if you waited until Saturday to bet this game you would have had Houston at +3.5 or I even had it at +4 which was a delightful W.  However, in terms of our series, this was a push.  We'll take it.

In primetime, we rode with the Kentucky Wildcats (+6) who withstood an early deficit to upset Florida in Gainesville.  Wish I had sprinkled some on the money line...  Finally, finishing up a wild Saturday of nonstop football was a double overtime thriller in Provo, UT where BYU (-3.5) held off the defending Big 12 Champ Baylor Bears 26-20.  This line came crumbling down to -2.5 before the weekend in most sportsbooks due to the top two BYU wide receivers being inactive.  We ended up getting out of there unscathed at our Wednesday line of -3.5.

 

Week 3

5. Liberty AT #19 Wake Forest (OVER 63.5 -110) - 5 PM - ACC Network

Last Week: Liberty def. UAB 21-14/ Wake Forest def. Vanderbilt 45-25

All hail Sam Hartman.

Wake's Junior QB had a very difficult last couple months having a blood clot removed in early August and missing Week 1.  He put on a show in his return last week, finishing with 300 yards and 4 TDs against Vanderbilt.  The Demon Decans are dangerous offensively again this year and will put up big numbers in the ACC.  Liberty is certainly not as strong after losing QB Malik Willis to the NFL but despite his past controversies, Hugh Freeze is a great college football coach.

Wake is averaging 44.5 points in the early going, Liberty comes in at 25 per game.  I contemplated laying the 16.5 points, and I do lean that way, but Liberty is 3-1 ATS against the SEC with a couple outright wins.  This game will mirror last week's Wake/Vandy matchup with a score around 45-24 and comfortably glide over the total.  

 

4. #11 Michigan St AT Washington (-3 -110) - 7:30 PM - ABC

Last Week: Michigan St def. Akron 52-0/ Washington def. Portland St 52-6

I thought long and hard about the ins and outs of this matchup.  It really comes down to two major factors.

First, Husky Stadium is such a difficult place to play especially for non-conference opponents.  I do wish this was a 10 PM EST game because there is always that eerie fog hovering over the 70,000 rabid Huskie fans at night.  Washington was bad last season and the year before they only played in 4 games due to Covid, so it's been tough for them to get their footing the past couple of years.  New head coach Kalen DeBoer led Fresno St to a 9-3 record last season and has Washington off to a 2-0 start.  Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr has been lights out to start the season and has played in some big games against Michigan St which will help.

Secondly, I just don't think Michigan St is all that great.  They were a team I had predicted as an underperformer before the season started, and this is the first spot they slip up.  RB Jalen Berger has picked up right where Kenneth Walker left off and he will certainly be a test for the Huskie defense to bring down.  The Spartans will immediately enter a brutal 5 game Big 10 stretch following this game and may be looking ahead as well.

The venue and the spot have me hot on the Washington Huskie trail Saturday evening.

 

3. #13 Miami (+5 -105) AT #24 Texas A&M - 9 PM - ESPN

Last Week: Miami def. Southern Miss 30-7/Texas A&M lost to Appalachian St 17-14

Every part of me going into this week wanted to avoid this game.  But I just can't seem to get past Miami getting 5 points against A&M after what I watched last week.  I fully understand college football, more than most other leagues, is week to week.  It is very possible A&M was looking ahead at this top 25 matchup last week when they embarrassed themselves in their own building vs. App St.  Once a top game of the college year has certainly lost some of its luster.  It'll be extremely interesting to see how these Aggie players and coaches respond.

Hurricanes QB Tyler Van Dyke has been a completion machine (73.3%) so far in 2022 whereas Aggie Sophomore QB Haynes King has been average at best throwing for 3 TDs and 2 INTs through 2 games.  Miami's rush offense has been stellar in the early going as well.  Head coach Mario Cristobal has had success everywhere he's been, and I've always been a fan of his offensive schemes.

Dare I say... the U is Back?!?  We'll find out late Saturday night in College Station.

 

2. Colorado AT Minnesota (-27.5 -110) - 3:30 PM - ESPN2

Last Week: Colorado lost to Air Force 41-10/Minnesota def. Western Illinois St 62-10

I've watched about 6 full quarters of Colorado football this season.  That's about 6 quarters longer than anyone should.  They are so awful. 

I'll never get that time back!  

Oh well, might as well make some money off their futility in the meantime.  Minnesota looks very good, albeit against poor competition.  Their running game has been unstoppable with 12 TDs on the ground already and their defense has only let up 5 points per game.  The Golden Gophers were my preseason pick for the Big Ten West and a berth in the title game in Indianapolis.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, and Northwestern all have an early loss and Nebraska is dead and buried.  

There is no aspect of the game where Colorado has an advantage and being a true road game in Minneapolis, I see Minny blowing the doors off the Buffaloes by 5 TDs. 

 

1. Fresno St AT #7 USC (-12.5 -110) - 10:30 PM - FOX

Last Week: Fresno St lost to Oregon St 35-32/USC def. Stanford 41-28

I tried hard to calm down my adoration for this bet upon first glance.  However, every time I considered changing my pick or leaving it off "David's Top 5" altogether, I felt immediate regret.

Here's the reality people.  USC and its trojan horse, amazing color scheme, and maniacal fight song are BACK.  Coach Lincoln Reilly and QB Caleb Williams hopped a flight out to southern Cal from the Sooner state to return USC to the map of college football greatness. 

I snuck a couple bets onto them last Saturday night vs Stanford with trepidation and watched the money pile up.  Fresno St is coming off a blown 4th quarter lead at home against a frisky Oregon St team.  That had to be gutting and it will be extremely tough for the Bulldogs to head down the California border and play a USC team who can't stop, won't stop scoring points.

As long as this line stays under two TDs, I'll continue to forecast a big W for us.

 

Good luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Twitter: @davecostabile