NFL Week 3 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 2 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 5-5 (50%)

We got through the always tumultuous first two weeks of the NFL season at 50%.  

I’ll take it.

As every gambler knows, it’s mere survival early on as we see teams settle into the season through September.  Entering Week 3 I feel extremely confident with my Top 5 and fully expect to get over the top Sunday.

To recap last week there’s only one place to start.  My egregiously bad Ravens/Dolphins under 44.5 pick.  Yikes.  When the very first play on NFL Redzone is an opening kick return for a TD in the game you picked the under in, you just have to laugh.  And I laughed…a lot.  This bet lost by 35.5 points.  Whether you lose by 30+ or 0.5 points they all hurt the same.

The pain continued down in New Orleans where the Saints (+3) couldn’t do a thing against that vaunted Bucs defense.  We were in line to cover until Jameis does what he does best, throw an ill-advised pick-6 killing our bet. 

Oh, and let’s not even discuss the Colts (-3.5) …too painful.

Fortunately for us, the Lions (-1.5) were at home taking care of business against the Carson Wentz led Commanders to get us on the board and we finished with a walk in the park 49ers (-8.5) cover at home behind Jimmy G.

 

Week 3

5. Houston Texans (+3 -115) AT Chicago Bears - 1 PM - CBS

I know… nobody wants to watch this game.  Not even Texans and Bears fans want to watch this game.  But entertaining games are not what gambling is all about is it?

The Bears are simply nowhere near good enough to be laying points to any NFL team.  QB Justin Fields threw only 11 (ELEVEN!) times last Sunday night in Green Bay in front of the world.  They have absolutely no trust in him and we shouldn’t either.

On the other side, the Texans are an easy 2-0 ATS (we had them Week 1 vs Colts) to start the year and are tougher than you think on both sides of the ball. 

I see this game as a snooze fest that comes down to the end.  Give me the points with the road team at Soldier Field Sunday afternoon.

 

4. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5 -110) AT Arizona Cardinals - 4:25 PM - FOX

Your eyes don’t deceive you.  I’m breaking a rule (again) and taking a road in-division favorite, but hear me out.

The Rams flat out OWN the Cardinals.  Since the beginning of the 2017 season, LA is 10-1 against Arizona.  That includes the 34-11 drubbing in last year’s Wildcard weekend kicking off the Rams Super Bowl run.  It’s just an awful matchup for Kyler and the Cardinals.

Let’s talk this year though.  The Cards shocked the world (and sad Raiders bettors alike) coming from down 20 to win on the road in Vegas last weekend.  Murray was sensational after halftime running around like a video game character and Renfrow coughed up the game in OT.  Literally.

After such an emotional win, I have Zona crashing down to Earth against a team clearly getting overlooked so far in 2022.  The Rams haven’t looked particularly good.  I’ll throw the Bills game out as they appear to be on another level but the Falcons came all the way back to cover last week in LA. 

This is where the Rams wake up and win by a touchdown or more.

 

3. Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins OVER 53 (-110)

I want to be very clear.  That Dolphins/Ravens under hurt my soul last week.  And I know this may appear to be a desperation chase on Dolphins O/U’s, but I feel great about it.

The Bills are incredible.  It literally feels like they’re playing another game so far in wins at the Rams and vs the Titans.  Keep in mind, the Titans were AFC’s #1 seed and the Rams won the whole damn thing last year.  The Bills waxed them both to the tune of a combined 72-17 differential. 

Seems unfair.

The Dolphins have the, wait for it, TOP passing QB in the league in Tua Tagovailoa and his 739 passing yards.  The “throw it up to Hill and Waddle” strategy has worked like gangbusters in the early going and the Bills have a ton of injuries in their defensive backfield. 

Josh Allen is the clear-cut MVP through Week 2 (+300 on DraftKings Sportsbook) and can hurt you in countless ways.  He has been unstoppable whether he is dropping back and picking up easy first downs underneath, throwing bombs to Diggs, or scrambling for chunk yardage and walk-in TDs.

Buffalo is the #3 total offense and #1 scoring.  Meanwhile, the Phins are #2 in total offense and #4 in scoring.  That is a gourmet recipe for points and we’ll need all of it to get up to 53.

 

2. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5 -110) AT Denver Broncos – 8:20 PM - NBC

No matter how you slice it the 49ers just appear better, or should I say, more settled with Jimmy G at the helm.  Garoppolo and coach Kyle Shanahan have been a tremendous combo for years and with Trey Lance breaking his ankle early in last Sunday’s game, its Jimmy’s show the rest of the way.

As I mentioned last week, I’ve always been a huge Shanahan guy.  One thing that I’m not is impressed with Broncos new coach Nathanial Hackett.  I’m not going to say anything new that the national media hasn’t exhausted, but Hackett appears completely lost in clutch in-game scenarios.  The fans even felt the need to countdown the play clock for the home team last week to make sure they got a play in on time!  Hilarious.

The Broncos are also 0-6 in the red zone and may be without Jerry Jeudy this week.  They barely hung on to beat the Texans late while the Niners Super Bowl odds jumped with their QB switch.  It just feels like two teams going in opposite directions early on.

For me this bet is simple.  The much better coach is getting points against a team who has underperformed.  Take the Niners on the road.

 

1. Cincinnati Bengals (-6 -110) AT New York Jets - 1 PM – CBS

The Bengals are down really bad right now. 

They’re not just 0-2.  They’re 0-2 as 6+ point favorites in both losses.  Last week they closed as a 7.5-point favorite against Dallas backup Cooper Rush and lost outright.  Yuck!

But, that’s why I love them this week in my #1 play of the weekend.  Cincy needs to save their season this Sunday in New York. 

The Jets meanwhile are coming off a truly miraculous comeback win in Cleveland last week down 13 with 1:55 left in the game.  Sure, it took a myriad of Browns blunders to get to that result but the Jets showed incredible fight and mettle to complete the job.

Here’s the thing though, the Jets are not a good football team and the Bengals have this golden opportunity to prove to the world they still are. 

I think this is the epitome of a “get right” game for Cincinnati as they stomp out New York by 2 TDs or more.

 

Good luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile