CFB Week 5 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 4 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 9-5-1 (60%)

We battled hard last week people. 

My top pick, the Clemson/Wake Forest over 55.5, sailed by in the 3rd quarter and we were off to the races.  Not too far behind was my 2nd best bet Kansas -7, who slammed the door down on Duke and improved to a shocking 4-0 start to the season.

The Noon slate was so close to perfect but unfortunately our Maryland/Michigan over 63.5 fell just short by less than a field goal.

The bad times appeared to be continuing as James Madison (+7) went down 28-3 immediately.  As the Atlanta Falcons know, that is obviously the worst lead in sports.  JMU stormed back to not only cover but win the game outright 32-28.

Sadly, our quest to post a second consecutive 4-1 Top 5 eluded us in the final game.  Texas (-7) blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead eventually losing in overtime to their rivals in Lubbock, TX.

We will certainly take another winning week and watch as my overall record is up to 60% on the year.  Let’s get to Week 5.

 

5. #4 Michigan AT Iowa (+11 -110) - 12 PM - FOX

Trust me, I am fully aware how gross this looks.

Iowa??  The same Iowa who legitimately can’t score an offensive TD?  The same Iowa who has played in a 7-3 AND a 10-7 game this year?  The same Iowa who lost by a billion to Michigan in the Big 10 title game last year?

Yes, those same Iowa Hawkeyes.

The same Iowa who is 6th in total defense like they are every year under head coach Kirk Ferentz.  More importantly, they simply don’t get blown out at the raucous Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. 

Michigan has looked fine and should be ranked 4th in the country.  However, I saw a stat that since 2000, the Hawkeyes have only lost once by double digits to a top 10 team at home and have beaten four of the past five opponents ranked in the top 5.

It’s just entirely too many points, especially because this is Michigan’s first road game since last year and they haven’t played anyone.  I’ll give them the Maryland win last week as I do like them, but their defense isn’t good at all.  Iowa and that venue is going to test the Michigan offense like they haven’t been yet, and I’d rather be getting 11 points in that spot.

 

4. West Virginia AT Texas (OVER 63 -110) - 7:30 PM - FS1

I thought West Virginia was going to be so much better this year.  I was dead wrong.  They can’t stop anyone defensively, and JT Daniels has just been OK since transferring from Georgia. 

Texas is coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to rival Texas Tech and is expecting to get freshman phenom QB Quinn Ewers back for this game.  He and that offense are going to absolutely light up the Mountaineers.  Even if Ewers sits another game, I like this spot for the Texas offense to roll.

The Longhorns’ defense has also been underwhelming since holding Alabama to 20 points a few weeks ago.  WVU is averaging 42.8 points per game, and I see Daniels putting together enough scoring to watch this over cruise past the number.

 

3. #7 Kentucky AT #14 Ole Miss (-7 -105) - 12 PM - ESPN

What’s the first thing you think about when you see this line between two top 15 teams?

Probably this: Why in the world is the #7 team in the country getting a touchdown against a lesser ranked opponent?

Not only is Kentucky #7, but they are also getting their starting running back Chris Rodriguez back after he was suspended due to off field issues.  Sure, the game is in the famous confines of The Grove, but a touchdown dog after how Kentucky has looked so far in 2022?  This game opened at Ole Miss -4 and has skied up to -7 even though the sharp money is on the Rebels. 

Here’s my point: Vegas is absolutely BEGGING us to back Kentucky here over Ole Miss. 

Don’t fall for it. 

Also of note, Coach Lane Kiffin laid into the fanbase and students for a lackluster homefield environment of late.  That place is going to be going wild for the home team come introductions and as the Rebels offense gets rolling like they always do at home, it will be lights out for the Wildcats.

 

2. Purdue AT #21 Minnesota (-12 -115) - 12 PM - ESPN

Opening the season 4-0 (4-0 ATS), the Minnesota Golden Gophers have been a delightful cash cow for us this year.  I don’t expect that to stop now.  Not against Purdue at home Saturday early afternoon.

Minnesota has shown to be as complete a team in the top heavy Big 10 so far this year.  They have a tremendous rushing attack ranking 2nd just behind Air Force (who rarely passes).  More impressive, the Gophers sport the #1 total defense in the country and it’s not even remotely close stat wise. 

Even after they bludgeoned Michigan State in their building last week, I still don’t believe the national media is giving them enough credit.  That is to our benefit.  I see Minny taking down Purdue easily by 2 TDs or more and putting their official stamp on the Big Ten West.

 

1. #10 NC State AT #5 Clemson (-6.5 -120) - 7:30 PM - ABC

Clemson returns to the top spot in my Top 5 except this time on the side instead of the O/U. 

I want to be clear; I really like NC State.  In fact, I have a future on their win total which looks great.  But this is a pure spot bet for me that I absolutely love.

Clemson won a shootout last week in Wake Forest.  I normally like to avoid or even bet against teams coming off emotional barnburners (See: App St last week vs. JMU).  However, this is Clemson.  Dabo Swinney did not stop talking this past week about how bad the defense was against Wake.  He’s right, they were bad, but they were also banged up with guys playing together for the first time on the fly.

On the other side of the ball, Clemson erupted!  Junior QB DJ Uiagalelei was fantastic throwing for a season high 371 yds and 5 TDs.  He also chipped in 52 yds on the ground.  DJ was confident and decisive throughout the game, especially in the clutch moments during the 2nd half and overtimes.

My main takeaway for this bet is experience in massive moments.  Clemson has dozens of these games under their belt with Dabo at the helm.  NC State is just inching into the party.  I don’t think they’re ready yet to contend with the big boys. 

This is Clemson’s opportunity on national television to show the world they are still here.

 

Good luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile