NFL Week 4 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 3 Record: 2-2-1 / Overall: 7-7-1 (50%)

Last Sunday had some comfortable wins and frustrating losses.

My #1 pick hit easily with the Bengals (-7) doing exactly what I said they would do, saving their season at MetLife Stadium.  Staying in the 1 PM slate, the Texans (+3) went into Chicago and battled the Bears in what would turn out to be much more entertaining than expected.  The Bears won with a walk off field goal pushing our bet.

I made the mistake in the Bills/Dolphins (Over 53) game to count my chickens before they hatched as the game saw 28 quick points.  Unfortunately for us, the humidity became a factor and the defenses clamped down keeping the game comfortably under.

We bounced back in my sole afternoon game with the Rams (-3.5) taking care of the Cardinals at home even though they look a bit pedestrian early in the season. 

Finally, in the Sunday night game, we had our hearts ripped out by Jimmy G and the 49ers (-1.5) in a game that the world would like to soon forget.  I knew we were in trouble when Garoppolo ran out of the back of the endzone Orlovsky style for a safety in the 4th quarter.

We’re onto Week 4.

 

Week 4

 

5. Arizona Cardinals AT Carolina Panthers (+1 -115) - 4:05 PM - FOX

This bet has some of my principals in it. 

First and foremost, I love betting against west coast teams playing on the east coast.  I admit, I wish this game was at 1 PM and not 4:05 but I’m still going with Carolina.

The Cardinals just aren’t very good.  I’ve watched a ton of them so far this season and their offense has very little identity right now.  RB James Conner is banged up and will play but he has been largely ineffective.  Marquise Brown has been a target eater and played well.  But all they seem to do is drop back a million times and hope Kyler pulls off a miracle.

Murray is 2nd in the league behind Joe Flacco in attempts and has 9 more passes than the next QB.  That is not the formula the Cardinals and coach Kliff Kingsbury are trying to implement to win games.

The Panthers aren’t all that great either, but they play inspired defense each week and Baker seems to be settling in with his new surroundings.  RB Christian McCaffrey is questionable but that’s not new.  He’ll play. 

The sharp money is on the Panthers and so are we.

 

4. Denver Broncos AT Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5 -110) - 4:35 PM - CBS

Here’s another spot where the sharps agree with me as well. 

The Raiders are the last 0-3 team left in the NFL and no one expected that.  I liken this Raiders pick to last week’s Bengals “Save their season” bet we cashed.  The Raiders are winless but let’s look at their 3 losses. 

Week 1 was a tight loss at the Chargers when they were still healthy.  Week 2 was one of the most devastating choke jobs you’ll ever see blowing a 20-0 lead against the visiting Cardinals.  Finally, last week they missed a 2-pt. conversion at the end of the game to take the Titans to overtime in their stadium.

My point is, they are RIGHT there. 

The Broncos have played lackluster football this season and unfortunately for the fans, their sloppy play has been on national TV two of the three weeks.  They are historically bad in the red zone and although I do expect that stat to improve, I don’t think they’ll have the firepower to win this game against a desperate Raiders team in Vegas.

 

3. Buffalo Bills AT Baltimore Ravens (OVER 51 -110) - 1 PM - CBS

I know it may appear like I’m chasing the Bills overs after last week, but I love this bet. 

The Ravens are a wagon offensively.  They stand #1 in scoring and #4 in total offense.  My preseason MVP pick Lamar Jackson is truly unstoppable and the young WRs of Bateman and Duvernay have been fantastic.

Defense has been a whole other story for Baltimore.  They sit dead last in total defense and are giving up a whopping 25.7 points a game.  They can’t stop anyone so far this season and they won’t stop the bleeding this week.

On the other side, the Bills have an MVP frontrunner of their own in QB Josh Allen and place #2 in total offense.  They went up and down the field last week in that Miami humidity but just couldn’t get the ball in the endzone.

On defense, the Bills have just been bludgeoned with injuries.  Their entire defensive backfield could be out for this game.  Tre’Davious White is still out, Micah Hyde is on IR, Jordan Poyer is questionable, as is Dane Jackson.  We move to the front four and they’re in trouble there too with stud defensive linemen Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips also out this week.

I see both star QBs lighting up the defenses and the scoreboard.  Take the over.

 

2. Kansas City Chiefs (+1 -115) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 8:30 PM - NBC

This game was confirmed to stay in Tampa at the time of this article. 

What a week it must have been for the Bucs getting displaced from their home confines and practices being scarce after a tough loss to the Packers last week.  Hurricane Ian ran roughshod over Florida, and I have to think that affected their preparation for an angry and hungry Chiefs team.

Kansas City blew a great opportunity last week in Indy and took their first loss.  They rarely lose two in a row under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will be highly motivated to respond. 

This one is tricky because the Bucs defense will always keep them in the game.  They are tremendous and have given up a paltry 9 points per contest.  I do think this will be yet another primetime under but I’m going with KC here getting the point.

 

1. Cleveland Browns (-1 -115) AT Atlanta Falcons - 1 PM - CBS

Cleveland is one mind boggling loss to the Jets with a 13-point lead under 2 minutes away from being 3-0.  They have simply “done what they do” so far this year by running the football behind their great offensive line with two stellar running backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.  QB Jacoby Brissett hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he won’t make the killer mistakes either.  The Browns only have one turnover in the first three games.

Atlanta, admittedly, has been much feistier than I imagined in the early going.  QB Marcus Mariota has been serviceable, and Cordarrelle Patterson is timeless.  However, it appears Patterson will be a true gametime decision which would certainly affect this line so I would get it in as soon as possible.

The Falcons are 3-0 ATS this year and my hat goes off to them but that changes this week when bully ball comes to town.  I expect the Browns to pound Atlanta into submission and win this game by a touchdown.

 

Good luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile