NFL Week 5 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 4 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 9-10-1 (45%)

It was a tough day last Sunday, especially early on.

My #1 play Browns (-1.5) stunk it up down in Atlanta yet still had many opportunities to win.  I may have to crown the Falcons as they are now 4-0 ATS and 2-2 overall proving much peskier than I expected going in.

As Sunday came creeping closer, the weather forecast in the northeast became uglier and uglier.  Sometimes publishing this article on Fridays for you all is a detriment and in the case of Bills/Ravens OVER 51, it was.  I likely wouldn’t have touched that game in retrospect.  With that said, both offenses had trouble in the red zone and we still had a great shot to cash.

The Panthers (+1) were a dead loser the whole way at home against Arizona.  Baker is getting entirely too many balls knocked down and the Carolina offense is a chore to watch.

We got back on track in the final two games of the day as the Raiders (-2.5) took care of business at home vs the “watching paint dry” Denver Broncos and the Chiefs (+1) offense went OFF against the Bucs in their building.

 

Week 5

 

5. Miami Dolphins AT New York Jets (UNDER 45.5 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

Gross pick alert I know.  I haven’t picked an under since that Ravens/Dolphins debacle in Week 2.  But this divisional matchup surrounded by question marks feels too good to pass up.

The Dolphins have been in all the headlines since last Thursday after QB Tua Tagovailoa had a very scary concussion in Cincy.  The NFL has been at odds with the NFLPA (and the viewing public) and the league has responded with bylaw changes to their concussion protocol. 

The Dolphins coaches and trainers have come under fire publicly as well and this is not the type of attention any team is seeking in the midst of the football season.

Moving into a matchup with New York appears easy on paper but the Jets won a football game last week and have some momentum entering this game with QB Zach Wilson back under center. 

I see the Dolphins still winning this game (although that 3.5-point line stinks to high heaven) but they won’t ask veteran backup QB Teddy Bridgewater to do too much down the field.  The Jets also sneaky have one of the better run defenses sitting 6th in the league which will limit the Dolphins options.  This will be a knock down drag out tilt finishing comfortably under 45.5.

 

4. Los Angeles Chargers AT Cleveland Browns (+2 -110) – 1 PM – CBS

We’ve got ourselves a good ol’ fashioned “Principle Bet” here in Cleveland.

The Browns are coming off a tough loss in Atlanta while the Chargers took care of a feisty Texans team in Houston last week.  LA will be traveling back across the country for a 1 PM EST start against a tough defense who will have their leader, Myles Garrett, back on the field.

I see this being an absolute war with the Browns having to make some plays getting hits on the banged up Justin Herbert.  RB Austin Ekeler arrived last week as well carving up the Texans in numerous ways.  The Browns will have to stay in their lanes and convert for TDs when they have the ball which was to their detriment in Atlanta.

The line is also awfully smelly… The Chargers are clearly the better overall team only giving 2 points.  Vegas is begging us to take LA.  Take the home team on principle and cash this bet with me.

 

3. San Francisco 49ers (-6.5 -110) AT Carolina Panthers – 4:05 PM – FOX

I’m pretty sure the Panthers stinks.

Matt Rhule is a dead duck coach for Carolina and it shows up in a myriad of ways. 

Carolina is one of the better first half teams yet are giving up the 3rd most points in the 2nd half.  That tells me so much about a coaching staff.  The adjustments are just not there when the going gets tough.  QB Baker Mayfield has not met a defensive line he can throw (and see) over and the coach is doing him no favors in the game plans.

San Fran meanwhile boasts one of my favorite coaches in sports, Kyle Shanahan, who flexed on national television last week against the reigning champion Rams.  The Niners moved the ball in creative and succinct fashion, never in real trouble in that game. 

The defense has been truly phenomenal.  The 49ers rank 2nd in passing, rushing and total yards allowed.  Most importantly, they lead the league in points allowed at an impressive 11.5 PPG.  That’s 3 whole points better than the next best defense.

If it’s going to be a special year for San Francisco, they go into Charlotte and handle the Panthers by 10+ points. 

 

2. Atlanta Falcons AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (OVER 46 -110) – 1 PM - FOX

I love this over so much it scares me.

As I mentioned earlier, the Falcons have been one of the early head turners in the NFL.  They have battled hard in every game and have covered every spread.  The offense has been well rounded enough that when the running game is struggling, QB Marcus Mariota has made plays on the outside with rookie WR Drake London.  When Mariota doesn’t have it, the backs are incredibly efficient. 

With Cordarrelle Patterson out at least the next few games, the Falcons will enlist upwards of 4 guys to shoulder the load on the ground including the quarterback.  I think they have proven they can score on anyone.

Anyone this week is the vaunted Bucs defense who got ripped to shreds by Mahomes and the Chiefs last week.  I see the Falcons finding a way to put up 20+ on Sunday.

On the other side, QB Tom Brady is in a terrible mood and the recipe will be the Atlanta D this weekend.  I keep envisioning Brady throwing two first quarter TDs to Mike Evans as they cruise up and over the 30-point mark.  The Bucs need to have a game that reminds the league they are who we thought they were, a true contender.

Also of note, the Falcons/Bucs matchups are always electric.  Over the past 5 matchups the over has gone 4-1 totaling 59.8 points on average.

 

1. Seattle Seahawks (+5 -110) AT New Orleans Saints – 1 PM – FOX

Don’t look now but the Seahawks are one of the most exciting teams to watch in all of football.

Also, and prepare your jaw for dropping, QB Geno Smith LEADS the LEAGUE in completion percentage at 77.3%!  Before you immediately assume its because he dumps it off to backs and tight ends as to avoid mistakes, Smith ranks 4th in yards per attempt (7.9) as well. 

His stats are earned. 

The Seahawks O-line has been better than advertised but Geno has also been excellent with his pocket presence ranking 5th in the league sacks allowed (6).

The Saints meanwhile are only the 6th team since the NFL started going to London each year to NOT have a bye after that trip.  I can’t imagine they’ll be at their best, especially after a brutal loss last week against the Vikings “across the pond”.  QB Jameis Winston is doubtful to play and even though RB Alvin Kamara should return after his shocking scratch at 8 AM last Sunday, I don’t think New Orleans should be favored by 5+ against anyone right now.

The Saints defense has been much leakier than perceived entering the year and I really think the Hawks could win this game outright.

 

Good luck!

 

 

Written by David Costabile

 

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile