CFB Week 7 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 6 Record: 2-3 / Overall: 12-12-1 (48%)

We start off in Maryland (-3) where Purdue continues to kick me when I’m down winning this game outright by 2.  This was a painful.  Down 8, Maryland scored with 35 seconds left and made the 2 PT!  Yay!  We have life….  Except we don’t as the flag flew for ineligible man down field.  Line it up again from the 7 yd line, knocked down pass, and we lose.  Sad.

Thankfully over on ESPN, Tennessee (-3) was mopping the floor with a completely overmatched LSU team in their building.

The gambling Gods jumped back onto our side for the Oklahoma St (-9) game in the afternoon.  Texas Tech went blow for blow with the Cowboys until State scored late to cover the 9.

The night games unfortunately produced two excruciating losses for my top two picks.  First was Washington State (+13) who hung in there with mighty USC, but two 4th quarter field goals for the Trojans handed us a tough L by 3. 

Finally, in a loss that makes you want to quit altogether, NC State (-3) played incredibly scared offensive football late (albeit with big time injuries) and milked the clock on their final few possessions kicking a field goal to win by 2.

The 3 losses were by a combined 9 points.  We are right there.  Onto Week 7.

 

Week 7

 

5. Iowa ST (+15.5 -105) AT #22 Texas - 12 PM – ABC

The Big 12 is awesome week in and week out.  The conference top to bottom is filled with teams who match up well with each other but have absolutely no shot of winning the title. 

It’s a delight.

The one team who makes your eyes bleed a bit is Iowa St so I apologize for making you root for this team, but this is a classic sandwich spot for Texas.  They just completely dismantled their biggest rival Oklahoma in the Red River shootout last weekend 49-0.  Looking ahead to next week, they travel to the #8 team in the country Oklahoma St.  It is human nature for the Longhorns to be sleeping a bit at noon this Saturday.

Iowa St has been a chore to watch offensively but their defense has a great scheme and really good players.  I see the Cyclones hanging around in this game and covering the massive line.

 

4. #10 Penn State (+7.5 -120) AT #5 Michigan - 12 PM - FOX

When I started my research earlier this week, I told myself I was going to avoid this game altogether.  However, the more I dug in, the more I loved the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is easily the best team Michigan has played.  In fact, Michigan hasn’t played anyone. 

No disrespect to Iowa (who can’t score) and Maryland (who can’t defend), they have also played Indiana, UConn, Hawaii and Colorado St.  Not exactly a murderer’s row.  In fact, those are some of the worst teams in the entire country.

Penn State’s schedule isn’t a list of world beaters but they did go into Auburn’s building and smoke them and also beat what is clearly a very tough Purdue team.  Does QB Sean Clifford scare me?  Very much so.  But he has been steady if not good this season and has made a ton of plays with 13 total TDs to only 2 INTs.  For all the heat coach James Franklin gets, he is 11-4 ATS as an underdog in his last 15 road games.

Michigan has proven they can move the ball but Penn State has the 5th best rush defense in the country which is by far the best the Wolverines have seen this year.  I think this will be an awesome game and I can’t wait to watch what I expect will be a seesaw battle.

 

3. Kansas AT Oklahoma (OVER 62 -110) - 12 PM - ESPN2

We’re back in the Big 12 (spoiler alert – we’ll return again shortly) for my favorite over of the week.

First look at this game floored me.  Oklahoma a 9-point favorite after losing by a million last week vs Texas against the country’s darling Kansas Jayhawks?  How is that possible?

Well first of all, QB Dillon Gabriel is likely back in the lineup for the Sooners.  It changes everything if he isn’t so for the line to stay where its at, he must be playing.  Gabriel makes Oklahoma’s offense formidable if not electric.  In 5 games he has 13 total TDs to zero INTs. 

The problem for Oklahoma is their defense can’t stop a nose bleed. 

Kansas also has QB issues as star Jalon Daniels hurt his shoulder and won’t play Saturday.  What felt like a truly special season for Kansas appears it may come apart.  The good news for us and this over bet is backup QB Jason Bean is capable.  There is no doubt in my mind Kansas will score on this Sooner defense with Bean at the helm.

It’s going to be fireworks in Norman.

 

2. #8 Oklahoma St (+4 -115) AT #13 TCU - 3:30 PM – ABC

This game rules.

OK St and TCU are both ranked inside the top 13 and rightfully so.  Both teams are 5-0 and have played similar type schedules.  This is going to be a knock down drag out battle and I predict the winner will be a lock for the Big 12 title game.

I’m back on the Cowboys this week after their beauty of a cover last weekend.  I simply think they’re the better team and if you’re going to give me 4 points as well, I’ll take it and run.

I feel like this line is a bit of an overreaction to TCU winning in Kansas last week with Gameday there and all eyes on them.  They should absolutely be lauded for that performance.

However, for me this game comes down to OK St having the best 3rd down defense in the country and a veteran QB in Spencer Sanders who has been phenomenal.  The Cowboys are on a different level than the opponents TCU have played thus far and that will show this weekend.

Also of note, OK St is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against ranked opponents and 7-1 straight up.  That shows me coach Mike Gundy gets his kids up for big games and you may even want to sprinkle some on that money line as well.

 

1. #7 USC AT #20 Utah (-3.5 -110) - 8 PM - FOX

I’m back up against USC in my #1 pick this week and I can’t wait to watch this game.

Rice-Eccles Stadium and Salt Lake City, UT is one of the best under the lights venue in all of sports.  This atmosphere is going to be incredible Saturday night.  USC has played two road games this year at Stanford and at Oregon St.  In both games, they struggled for long stretches against much lesser opponents than the Utes.

Utah is coming off a very tough loss against an upstart UCLA squad on the road.  Their playoff hopes are likely dashed with two losses on their record but a PAC 12 title is certainly within reach.  They will absolutely be up for this huge matchup.

I know Chip Kelly schemed the Utes into submission last week but before that game Utah was their usual stout self defensively.  They rank 1st or 2nd in every PAC 12 defensive statistical category.  USC hasn’t played a defense with this many athletes yet this year.  Trojan QB Caleb Williams has been tremendous but will he be able to manage the offense as well in this type of environment?  I’m betting that he won’t.

USC hasn’t played a ranked team yet.  In fact, the Trojans have lost 6 straight games against ranked opponents.  On the other side, Utah has won their last 11 home games.  They are a juggernaut in Salt Lake.

The line is funky as well.  Utah, coming off a 42-32 loss to UCLA, favored by 3.5 against the #7 team in the country?  Vegas is begging us to take the other side. 

I love the Utes Saturday night.

 

Good luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile